Total Registered Volume of Alumina Warehouse Warrants Exceeds 100,000 mt, Spot Prices May Fluctuate in the Short Term [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

Published: Feb 27, 2025 09:06

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SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Recently, there have been reports of minor alumina production cuts and maintenance in northern regions, coupled with a surge in domestic alumina export news, which has boosted alumina prices and improved market bearish sentiment. This week, spot alumina prices rebounded slightly. However, with the slight rebound in domestic spot alumina prices and the decline in overseas spot alumina prices, the domestic alumina export window has gradually closed. Currently, alumina operating capacity remains at a high level, while the incremental demand for aluminum is limited. The fundamental structure has yet to undergo a complete reversal, and resistance at the top of alumina prices persists. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Moving forward, it is necessary to continuously monitor the alumina export window and changes in alumina operating capacity.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on February 27

Futures Market: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at 3,347 yuan/mt, reached a high of 3,385 yuan/mt, a low of 3,320 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,366 yuan/mt, up 19 yuan/mt or 0.58%, with an open interest of 170,000 lots.

Spot Market: Yesterday, 13,000 mt of spot alumina were traded in Guizhou, including 5,000 mt at 3,360 yuan/mt and 3,000 mt at 3,465 yuan/mt.

Ore Market: As of February 26, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $96.34/mt, flat compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $95/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the SMM Australian bauxite CIF average price was also $95/mt, flat compared to the previous trading day.

Industry News:

The CEO of Alcoa stated on Tuesday that President Trump's plan to impose a 25% tariff on aluminum imports could result in the loss of approximately 100,000 jobs in the US.
On February 24, 2025, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Announcement No. 2025/012, stating that the release of the basic facts report and final recommendation for the third anti-dumping and countervailing sunset review investigation on aluminum extrusions imported from China has been postponed. The Commission is expected to release the basic facts report no later than July 16, 2025, and submit the final recommendation to the Australian Minister for Industry and Science no later than September 8, 2025.
Recently, Lizhong Group released its 2024 annual performance report. The company achieved revenue of 27.249 billion yuan in 2024, up 16.62% YoY, and a net profit of 691 million yuan, up 14.08% YoY. During the reporting period, the company maintained stable operations while actively expanding its market and customer resources. The steady increase in production and sales of its main products, coupled with the YoY rise in aluminum prices, effectively boosted the company's revenue.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 26, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On February 26, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 6,605 mt from the previous trading day to 102,700 mt. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 mt. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants decreased by 301 mt to 14,700 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered warehouse warrants remained at 0. In Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 1,507 mt to 3,009 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 5,399 mt to 70,400 mt.

Overseas Market: As of February 26, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $485/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $19.85/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate sell price was around 7.28. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 4,230 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 856 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.

Summary: Recently, there have been reports of minor alumina production cuts and maintenance in northern regions, coupled with concentrated news of domestic alumina exports, which have supported alumina prices and improved market sentiment. This week, spot alumina prices rebounded slightly. However, with the slight rebound in domestic spot alumina prices and the decline in overseas spot alumina prices, the domestic alumina export window has gradually closed. Currently, alumina operating capacity remains at a high level, while the incremental demand for aluminum is limited. The fundamental market structure has not yet fully shifted, and there is still resistance at the top for alumina prices. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Continuous attention should be paid to the alumina export window and changes in alumina operating capacity.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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