"PV Circle Spreads 'Stockpiling Tips'? Multi-Brand Module Distribution Channels See Price Hikes Ahead of Incremental Projects Entering the Market"

The new energy industry is undergoing a complete transformation towards being "market-driven." Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy," which refines policies on various aspects such as filing management, consumption responsibilities, and whether full grid connection is required.

According to sources from distribution channels, the price per watt of major brand modules has generally increased by 0.02 to 0.05 yuan. Additionally, the production schedule for module manufacturers typically spans 1 to 2 months, with improving demand simultaneously driving an increase in module operating rates. A representative from a top-tier module manufacturer told reporters from CLS that the company has recently adjusted prices; under the influence of the new policy and the rush for installations, the company's module operating rate has increased recently. In the long term, industry self-discipline is gradually taking effect, and market adjustment mechanisms are returning to rationality.

With "531" as the period, only three months remain until the grid connection "window period" set by the policy. To continue enjoying the preferential "old electricity prices" policy, the PV installation rush is in full swing. The head of distributed business at LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH) shared a short video on their personal Douyin account, explaining how to quickly secure goods without pitfalls. To ensure module supply, they shared "securing goods tips," including paying in full, picking up goods early, and using LONGi BC 2.0 modules to enhance project gains.

Rush for Installations to Secure "Old Electricity Prices"

According to the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy" jointly issued by the NDRC and the National Energy Administration, the "531" new policy marks the period for the full market entry of incremental projects. Starting from May 31, 2025, all new distributed PV projects must be consumed through electricity spot market transactions, with subsidies completely phased out.

The complete marketization of PV power generation is now a definitive trend, with all new energy on-grid electricity entering the electricity market and fully participating in market transactions. From June 1, all electricity from newly commissioned new energy projects will, in principle, enter electricity market transactions, with prices formed through bidding, and a "sustainable development price settlement mechanism for new energy" will be established.

According to policy regulations, existing projects connected to the grid before this period can enjoy guaranteed electricity prices, while all incremental projects thereafter will engage in market-based transactions, triggering this round of PV installation rush.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), as of the end of December 2024, the installed capacity of new energy power generation reached approximately 1.41 billion kW, accounting for over 40% of the total installed power capacity nationwide, surpassing coal power installations. Industry analysts believe that, based on considerations such as promoting industrial development, improving energy utilization efficiency, and advancing technological progress, the PV industry continues to optimize resource allocation through reforms and market-oriented measures.

A representative from a module manufacturer told CLS reporters that the industry has transitioned from subsidizing power station construction in 2013, to subsidizing power generation, and now to grid parity. This new policy heralds the beginning of the "no-subsidy era," which is an inevitable path for industry development. Project yields now entirely depend on market electricity prices and cost control capabilities. The implementation of the new policy will drive PV enterprises to shift towards self-consumption or market-based transaction models, placing higher demands on user-side electricity demand forecasting capabilities.

Price Increases of 0.02 to 0.05 Yuan for Multiple Module Brands

After a prolonged downturn in the module market, prices have finally shown signs of improvement.

Today, according to feedback from distribution channels, all major mainstream module brands have implemented varying degrees of price adjustments this week. LONGi Green Energy modules increased by 0.05 yuan per watt, Jinko Solar (688223.SH) and TrinaSolar (688599.SH) modules increased by 0.03 yuan, and Chint modules increased by 0.02 yuan. Several distribution channel representatives indicated that the upward pricing trend is confirmed, with the possibility of further price increases.

Regarding price adjustment policies, representatives from several top-tier enterprises told CLS reporters that price increases are indeed occurring, but the specific increase is determined by the channels. An unnamed module manufacturer representative revealed that at this stage, the price changes are mainly in the distribution channels, with prices rising by about 0.02 yuan since the beginning of the year. In the centralized segment, as large-scale bidding for ground-mounted centralized projects has not yet occurred in Q1, prices have not shown significant changes.

Another company representative stated that the price increase is driven by temporary supply-demand tightness, with module operating rates and prices both showing some recovery. However, these price changes are primarily adjustments in the distribution channels due to changes in supply relationships and have not directly impacted the company's operations. If the price increase trend in distribution channels is confirmed, module ex-factory prices will also be adjusted accordingly.

A representative from AIKO (600732.SH) told CLS reporters that the ex-factory price of ABC modules is planned to increase by a few cents, with good feedback and acceptance from end-users. The driving factors include the industry's relatively ideal adherence to self-discipline, with operating rates across various segments remaining at low levels, alleviating supply-demand imbalances and leading to a continuous upward trend in industry chain prices. Additionally, due to the timeline for the market-based electricity trading transition, domestic customers are engaging in some rush installation activities, further accelerating the module price increase process.

Under the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise" mentality, transaction activity has intensified.

The LONGi Green Energy business representative suggested paying in full instead of using prepayments, as manufacturers consider full payments as current demand and prioritize delivery. Those with storage capacity should pick up goods and secure ownership to ensure safety. Long-term cooperation with manufacturers offers more security, as manufacturers' inventories were at low levels before the year-end, and long-term partners enjoy priority. Avoid expecting locked quantities and prices to prevent losses from undelivered goods and tied-up funds. Using high-efficiency modules to increase installation yields is recommended, with BC2.0 being the preferred choice for installations, offering a 5% yield improvement that can turn one rooftop into the equivalent of 1.1 rooftops, significantly enhancing gains.

Confidence in Industry Chain Recovery Emerges

Analysts believe that the small-scale rush for installations in the domestic market is mainly due to adjustments in yield models after June 1, prompting early preparations. The focus will shift to when module price increases will be transmitted to the battery segment.

According to the LONGi Green Energy distributed business representative, the rush for PV goods is intense to secure "old electricity prices." Currently, silicon wafer battery processing fees have risen by 0.03 to 0.05 yuan. Before the year-end, manufacturers had already minimized inventories, leading to some shortages.

Regarding module price trends, Chen Guo from Zhongou Ruibo Research Institute told CLS reporters that the signal of module price bottoming out is clear. After inventory clearance in Europe, prices have started to rebound. This year, global new PV installations are expected to grow by 10%. With industry self-discipline, production cuts, inventory clearance, and the impact of export tax rebates and other policies, module prices are likely to continue rebounding. Integrated module manufacturers are expected to transition from cash losses to breaking even, with losses gradually narrowing. If capacity restrictions persist, module companies may achieve profitability.

For module companies, pursuing "power generation per unit area" is expected to bring greater value to high-efficiency products. A representative from AIKO stated that under the trend of market-based electricity trading, investors are shifting from solely pursuing scale to focusing on power generation per unit area, maximizing rooftop utilization instead of merely valuing the number of rooftops. According to CPIA data, every 1% improvement in photoelectric conversion efficiency corresponds to a 5%-7% reduction in the levelized cost of electricity.

Industry insiders believe that in the medium and long-term, market-based transactions will increase the volatility of PV project yields, further highlighting the risk-hedging value of high-efficiency modules. Low-efficiency module power stations face the risk of electricity price revenues failing to cover operation and maintenance costs, which is expected to accelerate capacity clearing and technological iteration in the industry. The essence of electricity marketization is the revaluation of energy. High-efficiency module manufacturers are expected to gain additional value through a "technology premium → power generation premium → electricity commodity premium" three-step process.