[SMM HRC Daily Review] Futures Market Continues to Decline, How Long Will It Take to Digest Trade Frictions?

​Today, HRC futures fluctuated downward, extending Friday's decline, and closed at 3,431, down 1.24%. Supply side, new maintenance plans for HRC rolling lines are scheduled this week, slightly easing supply pressure, though it remains at a high level. Demand side, manufacturing end-use demand continues to recover steadily. Looking ahead, the fundamentals of HRC remain in a strong supply and demand pattern, with HRC inventory buildup outperforming seasonal trends. Domestically, as the Two Sessions approach, market expectations have not yet been disappointed, and market demand is gradually recovering. Currently, the biggest imbalance lies in overseas trade frictions, with Vietnam and South Korea imposing tariffs on China's sheet & plate products. In the short term, sentiment still needs to stabilize, and prices may see slight downward adjustments. However, in the medium and long-term, China's sheet & plate products, whether through price advantages or transshipment via other countries, will not see export volumes completely disappear. The market awaits sentiment stabilization and speculative activity around the upcoming meetings.