Chinese New Year 2025: Copper Cathode Rod Enterprises Extend Shutdown YoY, High Copper Prices Suppress Consumption, Post-Holiday Recovery Remains Weak [SMM Analysis]

       Entering the Year of the Snake, the Chinese New Year atmosphere is gradually fading, and copper cathode rod enterprises have resumed full production after the Lantern Festival. Will the 2025 Dragon Year Chinese New Year break be the same as the 2024 Snake Year in terms of duration? Were the shutdown periods of copper cathode rod enterprises during the Chinese New Year consistent with pre-holiday expectations? How is post-holiday consumption? The following is a detailed analysis:

       First, according to the chart above, in January, pre-holiday restocking consumption was suppressed by high copper prices, with only some essential demand and bullish restocking orders being released. After the Chinese New Year, copper prices surged again, further suppressing the release of new orders.

       According to SMM communication, under the backdrop of high copper prices, the post-holiday digestion pace of finished product inventories at copper cathode rod enterprises was slow. With destocking pressure, shutdown periods were slightly extended. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises experienced slower-than-expected recovery due to the sluggish rebound in end-use consumption, leaving unreported inventory not fully digested. Although downstream enterprises further resumed production after the Lantern Festival, for copper cathode rod enterprises, this only translated into an increase in essential restocking. A market recovery may still require a decline in prices.

       The following are the specific survey results:

       From the data, the average Chinese New Year break duration in 2024 was 12.5 days. The planned break duration for 2025 is 14.0 days, up 1.5 days YoY. The actual break duration in 2025 was 16.2 days, exceeding the planned duration by 2.2 days and up 3.7 days YoY. Most enterprises experienced an increase in break duration YoY.