Frequent Polysilicon Transactions After the Holiday, Actual Transaction Prices Rise [SMM Analysis]

SMM, February 13: After the Chinese New Year, as upstream and downstream operations gradually returned to normal, SMM observed an increase in transactions in the polysilicon market, with rising market activity.

According to SMM, within less than half a month of resumed operations, multiple transactions were recorded in the polysilicon market, involving not only small enterprises but also several top-tier enterprises, with transaction prices showing an upward trend. It is reported that the shipment price of mixed-grade materials from some top-tier enterprises approached 42 yuan/kg, while downstream purchases from smaller enterprises even reached 42 yuan/kg. When converted to N-type dense small materials, the price reached 43 yuan/kg, reflecting a 1 yuan/kg increase compared to pre-holiday levels. The 42-43 yuan/kg range has become the mainstream transaction price for major enterprises.

For smaller enterprises, there are currently some price disadvantages, with transaction prices for some lower-tier small enterprises even falling below 40 yuan/kg. However, compared to pre-Chinese New Year levels, there has been no significant price weakening.

SMM understands that the recent price increase is primarily due to two factors. First, after the holiday, major enterprises have shown a clear stance to stand firm on quotes. Although some manufacturers have certain inventory levels, they remain optimistic about future demand and maintain a bullish sentiment due to the current low operating rates of polysilicon. Second, the issuance of the National Development and Reform Commission's (NDRC) "Electricity Marketization" document has boosted enterprises' confidence in H1 demand, further supporting the polysilicon market. Additionally, some downstream enterprises have relatively low polysilicon inventory levels, leading to urgent procurement needs, which also contributed to the price increase.

Regarding the future polysilicon market, SMM believes there are certain uncertainties. From the downstream module market perspective, March may see a significant increase in module production schedules, with expected production exceeding 50GW+. Conventionally, this would drive upstream demand and further push up polysilicon prices. However, wafer enterprises currently face inventory resistance exceeding 20GW, and March marks the final month of Q1 self-regulated production. With recent industry meetings being held, the actual production schedules of wafers remain uncertain. Polysilicon demand is still unclear, and SMM will continue to monitor the situation.

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