US Fed's Interest Rate Cut Temporarily Paused; Spot Market Remains Sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

US Fed's Interest Rate Cuts Temporarily Halt, Spot Market Remains Sluggish [SMM Tin Morning Brief] The US ADP employment data for January showed an increase of 183,000, significantly exceeding the expected 150,000, with the previous figure revised sharply upward to 176,000, indicating resilience in the labour market. However, the January ISM Services PMI stood at 52.8, below the expected 54, suggesting a slowdown in service sector expansion. Regarding interest rate cuts, US Fed's Logan stated that the 2025 options could boil down to either resuming rate cuts "as soon as possible" or maintaining rates unchanged "for quite a long time." The latest CME "FedWatch" data indicates an 85.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged in March, a 14.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, a 61.1% probability of maintaining current rates by May, a cumulative 34.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, and a cumulative 4.1% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut. This is unlikely to provide support for SHFE tin's upward movement in the near term. In the futures market, the most-traded SHFE tin contract dropped back slightly during yesterday's night session, but overall open interest showed no significant change. The domestic spot market remains sluggish, with some downstream and end-user enterprises resuming operations today. However, considering current tin prices and the situation of end-user enterprises, overall order volumes before the Lantern Festival are expected to remain low. Some traders have started preparing post-holiday spot inventories, while smelters' willingness to sell is gradually strengthening with the rise in tin prices. The market also needs to monitor the impact of macro policies and disruptions in overseas ore supply on tin prices.