》View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis
SMM, February 5:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2503 contract opened at 20,320 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,390 yuan/mt and a low of 20,155 yuan/mt, closing at 20,215 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume was 82,000 lots, and open interest was 165,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Macro side, the US tariff hike policy has been implemented. On February 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on goods from China. China has filed a complaint with the WTO dispute settlement mechanism and will take corresponding countermeasures. The US Fed paused interest rate cuts in January, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with widespread expectations. Fundamentals side, supply disruptions have decreased, and domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain stable in February. The average spot alumina price is expected to drop significantly, which may lead to a further pullback in aluminum costs, weakening cost-side support. Demand side, it is still the off-season, but with the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, aluminum processing enterprises are gradually resuming operations, and consumption is expected to recover progressively. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward, with recent focus on the progress of the tariff event, aluminum ingot inventory changes during the holiday, and the pace of downstream resumption post-holiday.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 3,606 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,626 yuan/mt and a low of 3,448 yuan/mt, closing at 3,454 yuan/mt, down 3.87%. Trading volume was 86,000 lots, and open interest was 110,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Recently, weekly alumina operating rates have continued to fluctuate at highs, and alumina supply has not shown significant reductions. During the Chinese New Year holiday, spot alumina transactions were relatively sluggish, with cost support evident. In north China, the decline in spot alumina transaction prices has narrowed significantly, with current transaction prices approaching the theoretical marginal cost of alumina production in the region. In south China, spot alumina prices have accelerated their decline, and the price difference between north and south China narrowed during the week. However, bauxite supplier quotes have slightly decreased, and alumina cost support is expected to weaken further in the future. In the short term, no large-scale production cuts for alumina have been observed, and the spot alumina market is expected to remain relatively ample, with prices likely to maintain a downward trend in the near term.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]
