Chinese New Year Holiday Ends: Rare Earth Market Trading Remains Sluggish, What Lies Ahead for the Market? [SMM Analysis]

SMM February 5 News: The rare earth market after the Chinese New Year remains immersed in the festive atmosphere. Although today marks the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, most rare earth-related enterprises have resumed normal operations and restarted work. However, trading activities in the market have not become more active as a result. On the contrary, market transactions remain relatively sluggish, lacking the usual hustle and bustle. Many suppliers have adopted a wait-and-see approach after the holiday, preferring to wait for further market clarity rather than rushing into transactions. As a result, proactive price quotations are rarely seen.

In this atmosphere, most enterprises did not rush to conduct business on the first day of work but instead chose to hold work arrangement meetings to discuss and plan their goals and strategies for the new year. Shipping matters were not prioritized, as more attention was given to long-term planning and strategy.

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Currently, the industry is highly focused on the import situation of Myanmar ore in 2025. Due to the persistent instability in the supply of Myanmar ore, most industry players have expressed deep concerns. According to some traders engaged in mineral imports, as of now, the recovery timeline for Myanmar ore remains unclear, and it seems there is still a long wait ahead. Before the Chinese New Year, although a small number of miners managed to import limited quantities of Myanmar ore, it was merely a drop in the bucket and far from meeting market demand. Large-scale import activities remain restricted and unachievable.

Against this backdrop, some industry observers have begun to predict that if Myanmar ore cannot resume normal import processes in Q1 2025, rare earth prices are expected to continue their upward trend. This prediction is not without basis but is a reasonable inference drawn from the current supply-demand relationship in the rare earth market and the prolonged inability of Myanmar ore to resume normal supply. As a result, the industry remains generally concerned about the future supply of Myanmar ore and remains vigilant about the continued rise in rare earth prices.