Hunan Gold: Selling Prices of Gold and Antimony Increased YoY, 2024 Net Profit Expected to Grow 60%-90% YoY

Hunan Gold previously disclosed its 2024 performance forecast, indicating that the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms of 782.5654 million to 929.2964 million yuan, up 60%-90% YoY.

Hunan Gold explained that the performance growth in 2024 is mainly due to the YoY increase in the selling prices of its gold and antimony products.

In its 2024 semi-annual report, Hunan Gold stated that in H1, the company primarily engaged in the mining and beneficiation of gold, antimony, tungsten, and other non-ferrous metals; the smelting and processing of gold, antimony, and tungsten; the deep processing of gold and refined antimony; and the import and export of non-ferrous metal ore products. The company's main products include standard gold ingots, refined antimony, antimony trioxide, antimony glycol, plastic flame retardant masterbatch, and ammonium paratungstate, along with some gold concentrates and antimony-containing products directly sold for export. In H1, the company produced 27,067 kilograms of gold (down 2.89% YoY), 15,147 mt of antimony products (up 5.95% YoY), including 3,644 mt of antimony ingots, 7,293 mt of antimony trioxide, 2,903 mt of antimony-containing products, 1,168 mt of antimony glycol, and 139 mt of antimony trioxide masterbatch. Tungsten production reached 490 mt (down 21.3% YoY). Among these, self-produced gold totaled 1,962 kilograms (down 13.49% YoY), self-produced antimony products totaled 8,173 mt (down 7.95% YoY), and self-produced tungsten concentrates totaled 410 mt (up 67.18% YoY).

In 2024, the prices of antimony and gold saw significant increases, boosting the profits of many related enterprises.

1# Antimony Ingot The price increase in 2024 was 70.73%.

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In 2024, antimony prices experienced a substantial rise. Although prices slightly corrected starting mid-October 2024, they remained high, resulting in a remarkable annual increase. According to the historical price trends of SMM 1# antimony ingot: the average price on December 29, 2023, was 82,000 yuan/mt, while on December 31, 2024, it was 140,000 yuan/mt, marking an increase of 58,000 yuan/mt over the year, with a 2024 annual growth rate of 70.73%.

Entering 2025, the domestic antimony market saw sluggish transactions with no significant changes in demand, keeping market prices basically stable. On January 24, the average price of SMM 1# antimony ingot was 141,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Due to factors such as maintenance shutdowns, winter mining, and transportation difficulties, SMM estimates that China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingots, crude antimony converted, and antimony cathode) in January 2025 decreased by 17.06% MoM compared to December 2024. This decline follows consecutive production rebounds in December 2024. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as the early Chinese New Year in late January led many manufacturers to undergo maintenance or temporarily halt production in the latter half of January. However, with domestic raw material supplies relatively sufficient, many manufacturers indicated that post-Chinese New Year production is unlikely to be affected. The 17.06% MoM decline in January antimony production may lead to a tighter market supply. Coupled with the price consolidation seen in November and December 2024, a short-term rebound cannot be ruled out. However, given the lack of significant improvement in demand, any price rebound is expected to be limited.

COMEX Gold's 2024 Price Increase Was 27.39%.

COMEX gold recorded an annual increase of 27.39% in 2024, significantly boosting the profits of gold enterprises.

Recently, with rising market risk aversion sentiment and a weakening US dollar, COMEX gold has risen for four consecutive weeks. As of 16:36 on January 26, COMEX gold was up 0.45%, trading at $2,777.4/oz, with an intraday high of $2,794.8/oz, approaching the historical high of $2,801.8/oz set in October 2024. Its 2025 annual increase currently stands at 5.16%.

Various institutions have expressed their views on the future of gold prices:

ANZ Bank expects gold prices to average above $2,738/oz in 2025.

Eric Strand, founder of AuAg Funds, stated in his 2025 outlook report that gold prices are expected to exceed $3,000/oz this year. "We predict that gold prices will surpass the $3,000 level this year and may rise further, with a realistic target of $3,300." Strand's bullish target represents a 20% increase from current levels. Strand noted that the new US administration may usher in an era of government stimulus and loose monetary policy.

Huayuan Securities pointed out that the upward logic for gold prices in 2025 remains unchanged. The dual themes of "interest rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" are expected to continue driving catalysts. Central bank gold reserves provide strong bottom support for gold prices. In the short term, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in 2025 and inflation expectations driven by tariff policies may dominate gold price trends. In the long term, under the backdrop of dual easing in US monetary and fiscal policies, shrinking US dollar credit, and de-dollarization, gold is expected to maintain upward momentum in the medium and long term.

Guotai Junan recommends a strategic overweight on gold for the entire year. In the medium and long term, the US faces significant challenges in fiscal reduction, and US dollar credit may remain under scrutiny. Global central banks continue to allocate gold periodically. Against the macro backdrop of de-globalization and changes in global order, geopolitical conflicts are expected to remain frequent, supporting gold's performance.

Goldman Sachs stated that it no longer expects gold prices to reach $3,000/oz by year-end but has postponed the timeline to mid-2026, citing expectations for smaller US Fed interest rate cuts. Goldman economists now forecast a 75-basis-point rate cut this year, down from the previous expectation of 100 basis points. This forecast is more dovish than current market pricing, as the bank believes underlying inflation is trending downward. Economists also expressed doubts about whether potential policy changes under the new Trump administration would lead to higher interest rates.

A research report by CITIC Securities highlighted optimism for 2025 gold prices based on its gold price analysis framework. Global central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, with the announcement effect of such purchases becoming more pronounced. Global market enthusiasm for gold investment may persist, with a structural trend of "decline in Asia, rise in Europe and the US." Geopolitical conflicts in regions such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine may become more unstable in 2025, favoring gold price increases. In the medium term, cryptocurrencies and gold are not expected to compete in safe-haven allocations. Under a neutral assumption, COMEX gold futures prices are projected to exceed $3,100/oz by mid-2025 based on model predictions.