- Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)

Published: Jan 24, 2025 16:33 (GMT+8)

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SMM January 24 News: Next week, the Chinese market will have only one trading day due to the Chinese New Year holiday, and there will be no night session on the evening of January 27 until the market reopens on February 5. During the holiday, more attention should be paid to changes in overseas markets. Key macroeconomic data include China's January official manufacturing PMI, the US December core PCE price index annual rate, and the Eurozone deposit facility rate as of January 30. Additionally, the US Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision, and there is a risk of changes to tariff policies under the new US president.

Regarding LME lead, LME lead inventory reversed and pulled back, decreasing by 6,875 mt WoW to 227,500 mt. Meanwhile, the LME cash-3M contango widened compared to last week, reaching -$39.28/mt as of January 23, showing divergent trends. Furthermore, US tariff policies and interest rate decisions remain key focus events, especially next week's US Fed interest rate meeting. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,930-2,030/mt in the near term.

Domestically, regarding SHFE lead, downstream enterprises conducted pre-holiday restocking based on demand but remained cautious about the post-holiday market. Therefore, this year's downstream restocking volume is primarily demand-driven. With more downstream enterprises going on holiday, lead consumption has further declined. During the Chinese New Year, the number of primary and secondary lead enterprises operating normally exceeds that of downstream enterprises, leading to a higher risk of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup. Additionally, attention should be paid to overseas market disruptions during the holiday. After the holiday, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 16,500-17,000 yuan/mt.

Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,850 yuan/mt. Next week, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, logistics will be suspended, and most upstream and downstream enterprises will be on holiday, leaving the lead spot market in a state of price without transactions. During this period, due to differences in holiday schedules between upstream and downstream enterprises, the probability of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup is high. Against the backdrop of high inventory, it may be difficult for post-holiday lead spot to maintain premium trading.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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