1.22Nickel Morning Meeting Summary
Nickel Sulphate:
On January 21, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,549 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 26,340-27,000 yuan/mt, and the average price increased compared to the previous day.
Cost side, LME nickel prices have continued to rise strongly recently, breaking $16,000 today, leading to widened cost support. Currently, the production of nickel sulphate from high-grade nickel matte and intermediate products is experiencing negative profit margins. Demand side, most precursor plants have completed nickel salt stocking for January, with only a small portion still requiring restocking. Spot order market activity remains sluggish. Supply side, finished product inventories at salt plants are critically low, leading to tight supply. Overall, under the pattern of tight supply and rising costs, prices still have room for further increases.
NPI:
On January 21, SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 940.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 0.5 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward, and domestic smelters remained in a loss-making phase, with production expected to decline slightly. In Indonesia, with the release of some new capacity and additional output from high-grade nickel matte conversion, high-grade NPI production is expected to increase slightly. Demand side, the stainless steel market is approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, with stainless steel spot prices remaining stable. Top-tier enterprises have sufficiently stocked raw materials before the holiday, while only some small and medium-sized stainless steel mills are making spot purchases, and high-grade NPI demand has not significantly recovered. High-grade NPI cost support remains firm, and in the short term, with the market approaching the holiday, prices may still have room for recovery.
Stainless Steel:
On January 21, stainless steel electronic trading gradually recovered, but market transactions were sluggish, and spot prices remained stable. Some traders stocked up before the holiday, showing strong bullish sentiment. However, with the impact of raw material and stainless steel backflow, post-holiday inventory buildup may occur. 304 cold-rolled in Wuxi was quoted at 13,000-13,300 yuan/mt, 304 HRC in Wuxi at 12,400-12,600 yuan/mt, 316L cold-rolled in Wuxi at 23,600-23,800 yuan/mt, 201J1 cold-rolled in Wuxi at 7,600-7,750 yuan/mt, and 430 cold-rolled in Wuxi at 7,150-7,450 yuan/mt. SHFE 10:30 SS2503 contract price was 13,110 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums at 60-360 yuan/mt (spot trimmed edge = mill edge + 170 yuan/mt).
