6,282 Billion Yuan! Sharp Decline in Billion-Level Projects! A Comprehensive Overview of Battery New Energy Investment and Expansion Projects in 2024

Recently, the "White Paper on the Development of the Lithium-Ion Battery Industry in China (2025)" jointly released by EVTank, Yiwei Economic Research Institute, and China Battery Industry Research Institute revealed that global lithium-ion battery shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 1,545.1 GWh, up 28.5% YoY.

For the Chinese market, EVTank data shows that lithium-ion battery shipments in China are expected to reach 1,214.6 GWh in 2024, up 36.9% YoY, with a growth rate 2.6 percentage points higher than in 2023. China's share of global lithium-ion battery shipments is expected to rise to 78.6%, further increasing its dominance. EVTank believes that, in addition to sustained high demand in the Chinese market, the accelerated global expansion of leading enterprises has significantly contributed to the growth in shipments.

In 2024, despite structural adjustments and cut-throat competition in the new energy battery industry chain, the sector remains highly dynamic. On one hand, NEV sales continue to rise sharply; on the other hand, ESS applications are emerging as another trillion-yuan market, attracting more industry chain enterprises to enter.

With demand continuing to expand, companies in the new energy industry chain are accelerating the construction of new projects.

According to announcements by publicly listed firms and public reports, Battery Network has compiled data on investment and capacity expansion projects in the new energy battery industry chain for 2024. Among the 279 projects included in the statistics, 229 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of 628.188 billion yuan (projects near 10 billion yuan are calculated as 10 billion yuan).

Sharp Decline in Investment Volume and Amount, Deep Reshuffling in New Energy Battery Sector

In recent years, the new energy battery industry chain has experienced a period of high demand, large-scale capacity expansion, and prosperity. For industry chain enterprises, increasing capacity helps secure orders, gain market share early, and strengthen bargaining power in price negotiations.

However, due to rapid expansion in previous years, top-tier enterprises are expected to slow their domestic capacity expansion in 2024, shifting their primary investment focus overseas. Most new domestic investment projects are expected to come from second- and third-tier enterprises and new entrants.

Specifically, In the battery sector, Battery Network statistics show that among 162 new projects, 127 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 370.55 billion yuan. Among these, six projects exceeded 10 billion yuan, 26 projects exceeded 5 billion yuan, and 96 projects exceeded 1 billion yuan. The largest investment is CATL and Stellantis' joint venture to build a 50 GWh power battery plant in Spain, with a total investment of approximately 30.86 billion yuan.

In the cathode materials and upstream raw materials sector, Battery Network statistics show that among 37 new projects, 30 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 148.934 billion yuan. Among these, three projects exceeded 10 billion yuan, five projects exceeded 5 billion yuan, and 14 projects exceeded 1 billion yuan. The largest investment is Tsingshan Holding, Huayou Holding, and Huafon Group's integrated phosphorous coal chemical project in Bijie, Guizhou, with a total investment of 73 billion yuan.

In the anode materials sector, Battery Network statistics show that among 21 new projects, 19 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 36.683 billion yuan. Among these, two projects exceeded 5 billion yuan, and 14 projects exceeded 1 billion yuan. The largest investments are anode material projects by Jinhui Energy and Zhongke Electric, each with a total investment of 5 billion yuan.

In the electrolyte sector, Battery Network statistics show that among 13 new projects, 12 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 25.613 billion yuan. Among these, two projects exceeded 5 billion yuan, and eight projects exceeded 1 billion yuan. The largest investment is Fluodo New Materials' green high-end fine fluorochemical new materials base construction project, with a total investment of 6.02 billion yuan.

In the separator sector, Battery Network statistics show that among six new projects, all disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 11.468 billion yuan. Among these, four projects exceeded 1 billion yuan. The largest investment is Enjie Co.'s second-phase wet-process lithium battery separator production line and supporting plant in Hungary, with a total investment of 3.523 billion yuan.

In the copper foil, aluminum foil, and aluminum-plastic film sector, Battery Network statistics show that among seven new projects, all disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 10.874 billion yuan. Among these, one project exceeded 5 billion yuan, and five projects exceeded 1 billion yuan. The largest investment is Amat's annual production of 1 billion m² composite current collector project, with a total investment of 5 billion yuan.

In the battery recycling sector, Battery Network statistics show that among 14 new projects, 12 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 14.97 billion yuan. Among these, one project exceeded 5 billion yuan, and six projects exceeded 1 billion yuan. The largest investment is Delin New Materials' lithium battery comprehensive utilisation and PACK industrialisation project, with a total investment of 5.2 billion yuan.

In the equipment, battery structural components, and other sectors, Battery Network statistics show that among 19 new projects, 16 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 9.096 billion yuan. Among these, five projects exceeded 1 billion yuan. The largest investment is Haiyu Baite's battery equipment production project, with a total investment of 2 billion yuan.

In 2024, among the 279 investment and capacity expansion projects included in the statistics, both the number of projects and the total investment amount have significantly decreased. Notably, the number of projects exceeding 10 billion yuan has dropped sharply from 29 in 2023 to 10, a decline of 66%.

The rise and fall of battery capacity expansion are primarily driven by structural overcapacity.

Due to overly optimistic expectations for the global NEV and ESS markets, industry resources have flooded into the battery sector. The resulting capacity expansion has led to structural overcapacity, with destocking and market clearing replacing expansion in 2023-2024. Meanwhile, the accelerated expansion of top-tier producers has hastened the industry's reshuffling.

Recently, several publicly listed firms in the lithium battery sector released their 2024 performance forecasts. Based on these forecasts, the lithium battery industry still faces structural and temporary overcapacity, as well as intensified competition. Battery Network statistics show that among 38 publicly listed firms in the lithium battery sector, their businesses span lithium batteries, lithium carbonate, lithium mines, cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, separators, lithium battery equipment, lithium battery copper foil, aluminum-plastic film, battery structural components, and battery recycling.

Using the median of forecasted net profits as the statistical criterion, in 2024, 19 firms are expected to report losses, while 19 are expected to report profits, each accounting for half. In terms of performance forecast types, compared to the same period in 2023, only seven firms are expected to achieve significant growth in 2024, while 11 are expected to see significant declines, one is expected to turn losses into profits, eight are expected to report new losses, seven are expected to reduce losses, and four are expected to see expanded losses.

"Currently, most second- and third-tier producers are operating at a loss, and many may not survive this round of industry reshuffling," an industry insider commented.

As industry growth slows and revenue growth rates decline, these are inevitable challenges for enterprises. Facing a series of severe challenges in the battery industry, companies are actively seeking countermeasures. Over the past two years, some industry chain enterprises have announced the termination or reduction of certain investment plans due to considerations such as market demand, funding, and expected yields.

An industry insider pointed out that during this period of cut-throat competition, some enterprises are focusing more on the utilization rate of existing capacity and market share of their products, adopting a more cautious approach to adding new capacity.

Innovation and R&D for Survival and Transformation, Sodium-Ion and Solid-State Battery Industries Accelerate

As market competition intensifies and cut-throat competition becomes more severe, many industry chain enterprises are fiercely competing in the domestic market, with profit margins continuously squeezed. Therefore, innovation and R&D have become the key to survival and transformation for enterprises.

Moreover, the mass production of new batteries for different application scenarios is accelerating. In the current market environment, the cycle for introducing new technologies has become a critical factor of interest.

In the past one to two years, "cut-throat competition" in the battery sector across various application scenarios has intensified, from technology to features to pricing. The pace of innovation and R&D in various new-type battery technologies has also accelerated, introducing new variables to the industry's landscape. Sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, and related projects have been frequently launched.

In 2024, the industrialisation of solid-state and sodium-ion battery projects is expected to see "large-scale investments."

Overall, in the first half of the year, there were 62 new investment and capacity expansion projects in the solid-state and sodium-ion battery sectors, with 42 projects disclosing investment amounts, totaling 111.785 billion yuan, accounting for over 30% of the total investment in new battery projects.

In the solid-state battery sector, Battery Network statistics show that among 23 new investment projects in 2024, 17 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of approximately 48.335 billion yuan. Among these, 13 projects exceeded 1 billion yuan, and two projects exceeded 10 billion yuan. These include the Pengfei Group and Fujian Giant's joint construction of a 10 GWh solid-state battery and PACK manufacturing project, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan, and Navi Manufacturing's 19.2 GWh bio-carbon-based solid-state battery production base, with a total investment of nearly 10 billion yuan.

As the next-generation battery technology with the most potential, EVTank predicts that by 2030, global shipments of solid-state (including semi-solid) batteries will reach 614.1 GWh, with a penetration rate of approximately 10% in the overall lithium battery market. The mass production timeline for all-solid-state batteries is expected to advance to 2027.

In the sodium-ion battery sector, Battery Network statistics show that among 39 new investment projects in 2024, 25 disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of 63.45 billion yuan. Among these, 18 projects exceeded 1 billion yuan, and two projects exceeded 10 billion yuan. These include Xingkong Sodium Battery's sodium-ion battery integrated project, with a total investment of 11.5 billion yuan, and Putai Energy Technology's integrated sodium-ion battery production project, with a total investment exceeding 10 billion yuan.

Although sodium-ion batteries currently lack significant price and performance advantages compared to LFP batteries, ongoing upgrades and optimizations in material systems are gradually gaining recognition for sodium-ion batteries in niche markets such as two-wheeled EVs and start-stop power supplies, thanks to their cycle life and low-temperature performance.

EVTank previously predicted that China's actual shipments of sodium-ion batteries in 2024 would exceed 2 GWh, far higher than the 0.7 GWh in 2023. Additionally, the energy density of sodium-ion batteries disclosed by industry enterprises has reached up to 230 Wh/kg, with some companies already offering products at a price of 0.45 yuan/Wh.

The commercialization of a new technology involves a necessary journey from theory to laboratory, testing, and market application. The development of sodium-ion and solid-state batteries requires producers to collaborate with research institutions and application enterprises to focus on technological breakthroughs. By leveraging the technology iteration cycle, they can remain competitive in the ever-changing industry landscape.

Cut-Throat Competition vs. New Paths, Giants Venture into Overseas Markets

In addition, facing a series of severe challenges in the battery industry, enterprises are actively exploring overseas markets to maintain stable operations during the industry's downturn and seek new growth opportunities.

Battery Network has learned that the European market is undergoing a rapid electrification transition, but local battery capacity is insufficient and primarily dominated by Korean companies. The US battery market is developing more slowly than Europe, but capacity demand and gaps are expected to continue growing. Therefore, leveraging their scale advantages and market expansion needs, Chinese new energy battery industry chain enterprises are gradually going global. Currently, nearly all of the top 10 producers in China's power battery industry have announced plans to build factories overseas.

Compared to the domestic market, the overseas market currently has certain technical barriers and entry certifications, with a more favorable competitive environment. Additionally, the overseas market places higher demands on the return rates of ESS products and emphasizes product quality. Chinese companies, leveraging superior product quality and cost advantages, can achieve better gross profit margins.

EVTank predicts in its white paper that global lithium-ion battery shipments will reach 1,899.3 GWh in 2025 and 5,127.3 GWh in 2030.

Battery Network noted that in 2024, domestic battery industry chain companies invested in 27 overseas projects, with 25 of them disclosing investment amounts. The total investment reached approximately 97.031 billion yuan, accounting for 15.45% of the total annual investment.

Notably, all 27 overseas projects included in the statistics were built by A-share publicly listed firms, covering batteries, battery raw materials, cathode and anode materials, electrolytes, copper foil, separators, structural components, and other projects. Except for some auxiliary materials, the projects nearly encompass the entire battery industry chain.

Regarding overseas destinations, domestic companies primarily focus on locations in Europe, such as Hungary and Spain; Africa, such as Morocco; Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia; and North America, such as the US.

In terms of overseas expansion strategies, not all companies adopt the independent overseas factory model. For instance, CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen), and EVE have chosen joint venture models, collaborating with local industry chain companies. This approach not only reduces financial pressure but also facilitates local business development.

Additionally, CATL has also adopted methods such as technical support and patent licensing for its overseas expansion, providing technical assistance and patent licensing support for Ford's LFP factory in the US.

It is worth mentioning that the severe changes in the battery industry are gradually spreading to the overseas market. Although domestic battery industry chain companies are actively seeking overseas markets as new growth areas, even prominent local companies in overseas markets are facing challenges.

In November 2024, Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt filed for bankruptcy protection in the US. In a statement, the company announced it would seek restructuring under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code. Northvolt stated in its filing that it had approximately $30 million in available cash, sufficient to sustain operations for only one week.

According to available information, Northvolt has about 6,600 employees across seven countries. The company is expected to complete its restructuring in Q1 2025. Currently, its debt amounts to $5.8 billion, and it plans to secure new funding through the bankruptcy restructuring process.

Furthermore, in recent years, as China's new energy industry has gained increasing global influence, the international political environment in regions like Europe and the US has changed, with trade protectionism becoming prevalent. While overseas factory construction can tap into more overseas market resources, it inevitably increases the risks and pressures faced by companies. Addressing policy risks and resolving operational challenges for overseas factories will test the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises.

Yu Qingjiao, Secretary General of the Zhongguancun New-Type Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, previously stated that the main obstacles to Chinese companies' overseas expansion, apart from the high costs of building overseas factories, are geopolitical factors. Additionally, Chinese companies must be cautious of risks such as land ownership issues for overseas factories and their supporting facilities, business environment risks, slow progress in industrial support, financing services, and infrastructure construction like water and electricity.

Conclusion:

The rapid development of battery and new energy projects is largely supported by the robust growth of China's new energy sector. According to CAAM data, in 2024, China's NEV production and sales reached 12.888 million and 12.866 million units, respectively, representing YoY growth of 34.4% and 35.5%. NEV sales accounted for 40.9% of total new car sales, an increase of 9.3 percentage points compared to 2023. China has maintained its position as the global leader in NEV sales for 10 consecutive years.

In 2024, while the battery and new energy market transitioned from a rapid expansion phase to intense competition in a "survival battle," multidimensional innovations are driving the industry's upward growth.

In 2025, as the industry reaches a critical period, standing out in fierce competition and achieving positive synergy with industry development will become key challenges for existing industry chain companies and new entrants aiming for long-term growth.