Beijing (Gasgoo)- Preliminary estimates from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicate that China's passenger vehicle retail sales are expected to reach approximately 1.75 million units in the first month of 2025, marking a 14.6% year-on-year decline and a 33.6% drop compared to December 2024.
New energy passenger vehicle (NEPV) retail sales are forecasted at 720,000 units in the month, which should account for around 41.1% of the market.
For clarity, the passenger vehicles hereby refer to the cars, SUVs, and MPVs locally produced on the Chinese mainland.
The earlier start of the Chinese New Year in 2025 has resulted in fewer working days this January. The expiration of previous policies that promotes auto consumption at the end of 2024, combined with the recent announcement of new incentives whose impact is yet to be realized, has contributed to weak consumer sentiment early in the month.
However, with the pre-holiday sales peak and gradual policy effects, market activity is expected to recover. NEPV penetration is likely to experience seasonal fluctuations, while demand for traditional oil-fueled vehicles and luxury vehicles may provide stability to the market.
During the first week of January, China's daily passenger vehicle retail sales averaged 39,000 units, down 27.8% year-on-year and 37.8% from December 2024. The second week saw a modest recovery, with daily sales rising to 48,300 units, which still fell 15.6% from the previous year an 35% from the previous month. As the holiday approached in the third week, daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China improved to 62,800 units (-26.4% YoY, +1.9% MoM).
The fourth week, with six working days, is expected to see a concentrated delivery surge, with daily sales projected at 86,700 vehicles. However, the final week, with just one working day, is projected to bring daily sales down to 108,600 units.
