SMM, January 16:
Raw Material Side: In the petroleum coke market, downstream carbon enterprises actively stockpiled this week, with anode material plants conducting minor restocking. Coupled with low refinery inventory levels and frequent refinery maintenance plans, petroleum coke prices continued to rise. Specifically, petroleum coke prices at CNOOC refineries showed mixed performance this week but were largely upward, with increases ranging from 120-200 yuan/mt. CNOOC Binzhou refinery reduced its price by 50 yuan/mt to 3,450 yuan/mt. PetroChina's refineries in north-east China reported good sales, with petroleum coke prices broadly increasing by 150-260 yuan/mt, now quoted at 3,210-3,750 yuan/mt. For Sinopec, refinery sales were strong during the week, with petroleum coke prices slightly increasing by 20-80 yuan/mt. Additionally, local refineries also reported good sales performance. However, due to poor profitability of coking units and tight raw material supply, some local coking units may face potential shutdowns, further exacerbating the market's supply and demand tightness. As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream enterprises' stockpiling demand has increased, positively impacting the petroleum coke market. Consequently, petroleum coke prices at local refineries have generally risen recently. Currently, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries is approximately 2,026 yuan/mt, up 6.24% WoW. Overall, the petroleum coke market is experiencing a dual trend of tight supply and rising demand, and prices are expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term. In the coal tar pitch market, prices slightly strengthened during the week. As of Thursday, SMM data showed the average price of coal tar pitch at 3,657 yuan/mt, up 1.86% WoW. Overall, the cost side support for prebaked anodes strengthened this week.
From the supply perspective, prebaked anode enterprises organize production throughout the year based on orders. According to SMM, most prebaked anode enterprises maintained stable production during the week. However, some enterprises faced operational restrictions due to environmental protection factors, leading to a slight decline in operating rates, though they remained at a high level. From the demand perspective, domestic aluminum operating capacity remained largely stable, and the demand for prebaked anodes in the domestic market was relatively steady.
Brief Comment: During the week, the price increases of raw materials such as petroleum coke and coal tar pitch boosted the rising costs of prebaked anodes. SMM data showed that as of January 16, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was 4,530 yuan/mt, up 4.96% WoW. The price of petroleum coke was supported by reduced supply during the week, and as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, downstream carbon enterprises actively stockpiled, driving petroleum coke prices higher. Coupled with the stable operation of supply and demand in the prebaked anode market, the price support for prebaked anodes has significantly strengthened. Moving forward, attention should be paid to the production and operation of prebaked anodes and downstream aluminum enterprises.
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