Copper Foil Shipments Remained High in December, "Winter Chill" to Ease in Early 2025 [SMM Analysis]

SMM January 10 News:

    According to SMM data, China's copper foil monthly production in December 2024 was 95,500 mt, up 0.22% MoM. Among this, lithium battery copper foil production was 60,600 mt, down 0.57% MoM; electronic circuit copper foil production was 34,900 mt, up 1.62% MoM. Lithium battery copper foil shipments in December 2024 were 53,400 mt, up 1.23% MoM; electronic circuit copper foil shipments were 31,500 mt, up 1.68% MoM.

    In December, overall copper foil production and shipments increased, with end-use demand showing optimism. For lithium battery copper foil, SMM data indicates that China's anode material production in December 2024 decreased by 5% MoM, mainly due to end-user companies having accumulated certain raw material and finished product inventories from previous production surges. However, the NEV market remained robust under the stimulus of the trade-in policy, while the ESS sector also saw strong demand during the year-end grid connection period. For electronic circuit copper foil, industry orders from the automotive and high-end server sectors performed relatively well.

    Compared to December's copper foil production, shipment growth was more pronounced. In addition to optimistic end-user demand, on one hand, concerns over potential tariff policies under Trump, who will officially take office as US President in January, led to early shipments within the industry chain. On the other hand, the overseas Christmas holiday, New Year, and the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday drove downstream stockpiling demand, while upstream reduced finished product inventories. Additionally, with the comprehensive rebound in processing fees for lithium battery copper foil and electronic circuit copper foil in Q4, companies showed higher shipment sentiment.

    Looking ahead, SMM expects total copper foil production in January 2025 to decline to 91,600 mt. Among this, lithium battery copper foil production is expected to be 58,100 mt, down 4.21% MoM; electronic circuit copper foil production is expected to be 33,600 mt, down 3.90% MoM. Lithium battery copper foil shipments are expected to be 50,500 mt, down 5.44% MoM, while electronic circuit copper foil shipments are expected to be 30,000 mt, down 4.50% MoM.

    January will see the Chinese New Year holiday, with some downstream companies starting to take breaks in late January. Therefore, copper foil production and shipments are expected to decline. However, current downstream stockpiling sentiment remains relatively positive, with order volumes and processing fees both performing better YoY compared to the same period last year. For the copper cathode foil industry, unlike the "harsh winter" at the beginning of 2024, the 2025 Chinese New Year is not expected to see widespread shutdowns and production cuts.

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