Top 10 International News in the Battery and New Energy Industry in 2024: Distinguishing Trends and Risks

In 2024, the battery and new energy industry chain collectively seeks to navigate through cycles, with exports and global expansion surging. Entrepreneurs have transitioned from exploring "going out" to firmly "going in" and now to contemplating "survival."

Amid the global expansion boom, challenges abound. Reviewing China's global expansion progress in 2024, opportunities and risks are closely intertwined. "Product export," "technology export," "capacity export," "brand export," "industry chain export," and "supply chain export" require entrepreneurs to consider factors such as geopolitical risks, trade rule challenges, and changes in the global economic and policy environment.

Battery Network has compiled the top ten international news stories of the battery and new energy industry in 2024, reviewing the year to discern opportunities and risks, and providing insights and references for 2025.

1. Overseas Electrification Delayed, China to Achieve Ten Consecutive Championships.

In 2024, overseas electrification transitions faced challenges. The EU considered delaying its plan to fully ban the sale of fuel vehicles by 2035. Mercedes-Benz postponed its target of achieving 50% EV sales by 2025 to 2030. Volvo Cars canceled its goal of full electrification by 2030. Porsche announced it would abandon its target of having EVs account for 80% of new car sales by 2030. Volkswagen Group gave up plans to produce the ID.3 at its largest car factory. Apple abandoned its decade-long EV project. Automakers such as Audi, Ford, Stellantis, and component giants like Bosch, Schaeffler, and ZF announced mass layoffs. To cut costs, layoffs, salary reductions, and factory closures continued.

In contrast to struggling overseas automakers, China's NEV market continued to grow rapidly. According to CAAM, from January to November 2024, China's NEV production and sales reached 11.345 million and 11.262 million units, respectively, up 34.6% and 35.6% YoY. NEV sales accounted for 40.3% of total new car sales. In November, NEV production and sales reached 1.566 million and 1.512 million units, respectively, up 45.8% and 47.4% YoY. In 2024, China's monthly NEV sales exceeded 1.5 million units for the first time, with production and sales ranking first globally for the tenth consecutive year.

Commentary: Overall, due to uncertainties in the policy environment and changes in market conditions and customer demand, overseas automakers began adjusting their previously aggressive electrification strategies, slowing down the pace of electrification. Meanwhile, China seized the opportunities of "intelligentization" and "electrification," further reshaping the industry chain, strengthening the supply chain, improving the ecosystem, extending the value chain, and achieving continuous growth in market penetration.

2. Challenges in European Localization, Battery Industry Chain Still Needs Improvement.

A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted that since 2017, developing the EU's domestic lithium-ion battery industry to reduce import dependence has been a key goal for the European Commission and some national governments. However, surging investment enthusiasm led to a significant increase in EU production, from 2GWh in 2019 to over 60GWh in 2023. By the end of June 2024, planned additional capacity exceeded 500GWh, involving an estimated annual investment of $8.5 billion from 2025 to 2030.

Despite the rising investment enthusiasm in the EU battery industry, signs of slowing project development have emerged. In November 2024, Northvolt, Europe's largest battery manufacturer, filed for bankruptcy protection in the US and sought business restructuring, leading to the resignation of its co-founder and CEO. Since its establishment in 2016, Northvolt had raised over $15 billion through multiple financing rounds. In June, ACC, a battery company jointly established by Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz, and TotalEnergies, announced the suspension of factory construction in Kaiserslautern, Germany, and Termoli, Italy, due to slowing EV sales and cost concerns. The total investment for these two gigafactories was estimated at €5 billion. Notably, ACC's first factory in France successfully delivered its first batch of batteries in 2024, with an annual delivery capacity equivalent to batteries for 2,000 vehicles, or approximately 0.12GWh, which is equivalent to CATL's two-hour production.

Additionally, it is worth mentioning that excluding the Chinese market, the competitive landscape of power battery installations among China, Japan, and South Korea has shifted. From January to August 2024, Tesla entered the global (excluding China) top 10 in power battery installations, with its market share continuing to rise.

Commentary: In 2024, the power battery industry witnessed significant events. Europe's dream of a battery "comeback" was shattered, the long-standing tripartite dominance of China, Japan, and South Korea in power batteries was disrupted, and new players entered the top 10. Tesla, which proposed its in-house battery development plan in 2020, has become a strong challenger in the global battery market within just a few years, inspiring automakers to explore in-house battery development. Domestically, NEV manufacturers like Geely, GAC, and Zeekr have already adopted in-house power batteries. GAC's Impulse Battery, Geely's Quzhou Extreme Battery, and Yaoning New Energy have all appeared in China's top 15 power battery installations.

3. Intensified Trade Frictions, Rising Protectionism.

On December 11, 2024, the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced the imposition of Section 301 tariffs on tungsten products, polysilicon, and other products imported from China. Previously, the US had released the results of a four-year review of Section 301 tariffs on China, raising the tariff rate on EVs from 25% to 100%, and increasing tariffs on power batteries and materials from 8.5% to 25%, as well as on ESS batteries from 8.5% to 25%. On October 29, the European Commission announced the conclusion of its anti-subsidy investigation, deciding to impose a five-year final anti-subsidy duty on BEVs imported from China. BYD was subjected to a 17.0% tariff, Geely to 18.8%, SAIC to 35.3%, other cooperating companies to 20.7%, Tesla to 7.8% after requesting individual review, and all non-cooperating companies to 35.3%. On August 26, the Canadian government, despite China's repeated opposition and solemn representations, announced tariffs on Chinese EVs. In June, Turkey's Ministry of Trade stated it would impose a 40% tariff on all cars imported from China to curb imports, protect domestic automakers, and reduce the current account deficit. Trade disputes have become a focal point of international attention.

Since the EU's preliminary ruling on the anti-subsidy case against Chinese EVs, it has faced strong opposition from several European governments. Meanwhile, international automakers like BMW Group, Volkswagen Group, and Mercedes-Benz have also expressed opposition.

Amid uncertainties in the international environment, China's NEV exports showed both YoY and MoM declines. According to the latest data from Chinese customs, in November 2024, China's global EV exports fell 19% YoY, with exports to the EU down 23% YoY.

Commentary: In 2023, China surpassed Japan to become the world's largest car exporter. As the window for global expansion opened, trade barriers in Europe and the US emerged. A series of protectionist measures have posed risks to China's EV exports. At the same time, risks and opportunities coexist. The EU's tariffs on Chinese EVs target only BEVs, excluding plug-in hybrids and range-extended NEVs. Chinese automakers are shifting their export focus to hybrid products, with new opportunities accelerating China's global expansion.

4. Challenges in Export and Global Expansion, Coexistence of Cooperation and Competition.

At the 11th China (Guangzhou) Battery New Energy Industry International Summit Forum (ABEC 2024), Geng Qianxi, Secretary General of the Battery "Davos" Organizing Committee, stated that through the ups and downs of cycles, China has gradually transitioned from domestic substitution to tiered exports. China's lithium battery four main materials have a global market share exceeding 80%, with anode materials reaching 94%. The lithium battery equipment market has reached a scale of hundreds of billions of yuan. In segments like power batteries, Chinese companies are climbing the global rankings.

According to Lyu Daliang, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis, in the first three quarters, China's exports of EVs, lithium batteries, and PV products totaled 757.83 billion yuan, accounting for 4.1% of China's total export value.

To further establish global resource operation capabilities, domestic battery and new energy industry chain companies are actively investing overseas. According to the "China Lithium Battery Industry Chain Enterprises' Global Expansion Strategy Report (2024)" jointly released by EVTank, the Yiwei Economic Research Institute, and the China Battery Industry Research Institute, as of June 2024, the total overseas investment announced by China's lithium battery industry chain enterprises reached 564.8 billion yuan.

According to a November 2024 report by the Financial Times, the EU plans to force Chinese companies setting up factories in Europe to transfer intellectual property to European companies in exchange for EU subsidies.

Geopolitical uncertainties have led to changes in the ownership of overseas lithium mine assets, the suspension of overseas capacity construction plans by battery manufacturers, and other disruptions in international expansion. Domestic lithium battery leading enterprises are accelerating their global expansion through technological empowerment, while lithium miners are transferring equity to overseas governments to gain policy support for development and operations. For example, in December 2024, Ganfeng Lithium announced that its board of directors approved a proposal allowing its wholly-owned subsidiary Ganfeng International Co., Ltd. and Lithium du Mali SA to sign an equity transfer agreement with the Republic of Mali. According to the agreement, the Malian government will acquire 35% of LMSA's equity, including 10% free of charge as per Mali's mining law, and 25% for a transaction price of 20 billion West African CFA francs (approximately $32 million).

Commentary: Global expansion is an inevitable trend. The high profit margins and untapped potential of overseas markets drive domestic battery companies to "compete externally." However, it is foreseeable that China's lithium battery companies will face both opportunities and challenges in their global expansion. On January 2, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce's Department of Trade in Services and Commercial Services issued a notice seeking public comments on adjustments to the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Exporting from China," proposing to add technologies related to lithium battery cathode material preparation and lithium extraction. In the medium and long term, cooperation and competition will coexist, and a well-planned approach to global expansion may be more advantageous for domestic companies.

5. Reducing Dependence on China, Europe and the US Allocate Funds to Support the New Energy Industry.

In July 2024, the Biden administration announced $1.7 billion in funding to support automakers' efforts to produce EVs, trucks, and motorcycles. This funding covers 11 projects and is expected to help companies transform their facilities into EV manufacturing plants or expand their existing EV businesses. In August, the US Department of Energy announced $521 million in funding to continue building the national EV charging network. In September, the US Department of Energy announced over $3 billion in funding for 25 selected projects across 14 states to promote the domestic production of advanced batteries and battery materials.With the latest allocation of over $3 billion, US government subsidies for critical minerals and battery supply chains will reach $35 billion. In December, the US Department of Energy (DOE) plans to allocate $50 million over the next five years to establish the "Low-Cost Earth-Abundant Sodium-Ion Battery (LENS) Alliance," aiming for energy density to meet or exceed the current LFP/graphite system.

Besides the US, in December 2024, the EU allocated €4.6 billion to promote net-zero technologies, EV battery manufacturing, and renewable hydrogen development.

Commentary: Green energy transition is undoubtedly the future trend, but the US and Europe lack sufficient momentum in electrification. Northvolt, once hailed as the "European CATL," squandered as much as 100 billion yuan in just seven years, ultimately falling into financial difficulties, leading to the suspension of most factories. It is evident that to "reduce dependence on China," Western governments are formulating stronger and more stable policies to support the transition to electrification.

VI. Frequent Fire and Explosion Incidents Highlight the Importance of Safety.

On June 24, 2024, a severe fire broke out at a lithium battery manufacturing plant in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea, caused by a battery fire. The incident tragically resulted in the deaths of 23 people, including 17 Chinese workers. Investigations revealed that the involved company (Aricell) had been using deceptive practices, such as substituting products for safety tests, since it began supplying related battery products to the South Korean military in 2021. Poor manufacturing processes and lax management ultimately led to defective batteries catching fire and causing the tragedy. On August 1, an EV caught fire in the underground parking garage of an apartment in Incheon, South Korea, damaging or destroying over 140 vehicles and severely impacting nearby residents. Due to power and water outages, some residents were forced to relocate to shelters.

In response, the South Korean government has placed great emphasis on EV fire safety management. On September 6, South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo chaired a meeting with relevant department heads to finalise and announce EV fire safety management measures. Automakers selling EVs in South Korea will now be required to disclose key information about power batteries, including battery capacity, rated voltage, maximum output power, as well as details about battery pack manufacturers, form, and main raw materials.

Additionally, in September 2024, according to an official announcement from Alibaba Cloud on the "Singapore Availability Zone C Data Center Fire," the fire and overheating were caused by a lithium battery explosion. Media reports indicated that the fire lasted for 36 hours. In October, one of the largest lithium-ion battery recycling plants in the US, Critical Mineral Recovery, experienced a series of explosions, with mushroom clouds clearly visible. The fire completely destroyed the 20,000 m² facility. Lithium battery fire and explosion incidents are becoming increasingly frequent.

Commentary: Lithium battery fires and explosions are highly destructive, and traditional firefighting facilities are often ineffective. This serves as a warning to industry chain enterprises that the focus of technology should not only be on performance but also on safety and reliability.

VII. Expansion of the LFP Camp and Clear Globalisation Trends.

Due to price and safety advantages, more overseas automakers began adopting LFP batteries in 2024. European automakers such as Renault, Stellantis, General Motors, Hyundai, and Volkswagen have all announced plans to introduce LFP batteries in entry-level car models.

On December 24, 2024, Lopal announced that from 2024 to 2028, it will sell a total of 260,000 mt of LFP cathode materials to LGES. Based on current market prices, the total market value of this new order is close to 10 billion yuan, making it the largest contract signed in the global LFP market in 2024.

At its strategic release in October 2024, LGES announced plans to double its revenue within five years. In 2023, LGES's revenue was 33.75 trillion won (approximately 176.9 billion yuan). Based on this, its 2028 revenue target will reach 353.8 billion yuan. A key step to achieving this goal is the widespread adoption of LFP batteries.

Additionally, BYD Group Executive Vice President and Chief Scientist Yubo Lian has stated that due to factors such as cost-effectiveness, safety, and material controllability, LFP batteries will remain the mainstream choice in the market for the next 15 years.

Commentary: With expanding demand and applications, the globalisation wave of LFP is unstoppable. Domestically, the market share of LFP batteries is increasing, accounting for nearly 80%. According to the latest data from China's General Administration of Customs, in November 2024, China's LFP exports reached 334 mt, up 105% YoY. As LFP gains greater recognition in overseas markets and technology, export volumes are expected to see explosive growth, with clear globalisation trends.

VIII. Fierce Competition in the ESS Market as Chinese Companies Expand Globally.

Recently, research institutions EVTank and the China Battery Industry Research Institute jointly released the "White Paper on the Development of the Lithium-Ion Battery Industry in China (2025)." In the ESS sector, China's strong new energy policies, enhanced layouts by central and state-owned enterprises, and declining ESS costs drove ultra-high growth in 2024. In the US, rigid ESS integration demand combined with ITC subsidies showed significant effects. Additionally, emerging markets experienced multi-point breakthroughs, with multiple GWh orders signed in H2 2024 in the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Australia. Global ESS LIB shipments reached 369.8 GWh in 2024, up 64.9% YoY.

In the domestic ESS sector, in 2024, LFP ESS battery cell prices dropped from 0.9 yuan/Wh–1.0 yuan/Wh at the beginning of 2023 to 0.3 yuan/Wh–0.4 yuan/Wh. The average price of ESS systems fell from around 1.5 yuan/Wh to 0.5 yuan/Wh–0.6 yuan/Wh, with some ESS systems' winning bid prices dropping below 0.5 yuan/Wh.

Intense cut-throat competition in the domestic ESS market has led ESS companies to shift their focus significantly overseas. Since October 2024, Chinese companies such as Envision, Sungrow, Huawei, Chunsun New Energy, REPT, and Sunwoda have aggressively expanded globally, securing numerous project orders from South Africa to Europe and Southeast Asia's emerging economies.

Commentary: The continuous decline in domestic ESS winning bid prices has made going global a better option. Chinese companies, leveraging years of advantages in technological innovation and industrial upgrades, have demonstrated strong capabilities internationally. However, the risks in international markets are undeniable, including long-term overseas operation and maintenance costs and geopolitical risks.

IX. Solid-State Batteries Gain Momentum, Accelerating Industrialisation.

According to the "White Paper on the Development of Solid-State Lithium Battery Technology," co-authored by the Zhongguancun New-Type Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, internationally, Japan and South Korea focus on sulphide-based all-solid-state batteries. Except for LG, other companies have no clear plans in the half-solid state battery field. In Europe and the US, solid-state battery strategies vary, primarily led by emerging solid-state battery companies such as QuantumScape and Solid Power. In the half-solid state battery field, only US companies QuantumScape, Factorial Energy, and 24M Technologies have clear plans, while others focus on all-solid-state battery technology.

Domestically, Chinese half-solid state battery manufacturers include CATL, EVE, Ganfeng Lithium, Gotion High-tech, and SVOLT Energy, as well as solid-state battery companies like Tblue New Energy, Qingtao Energy, WELION New Energy, and ProLogium Technology, primarily focusing on oxide-based routes. According to disclosures from company websites or official accounts, domestic solid-state battery capacity (existing, under construction, or planned) has reached hundreds of GWh, with rapid progress in industrialisation.

All-solid-state batteries are a key area for next-generation battery technology development and are listed as strategic R&D priorities by major countries and regions, including China, the US, the EU, Japan, and South Korea.

Commentary: Based on policies and public information from relevant companies, all-solid-state batteries are expected to begin demonstration vehicle applications around 2027 and enter commercial applications after 2030. Currently, factors such as technological accumulation, R&D resources, and cost considerations have led to differences between domestic and international manufacturers in developing the solid-state battery industry. The future development and industrialisation of the solid-state battery industry will depend on market validation.

X. Lithium Mine Production Cuts Continue Amid Intensified Resource Competition.

Affected by lithium price fluctuations and cost pressures, in 2024, lithium miners such as Mineral Resources, Liontown, Pilbara, Albemarle, Arcadium Lithium, and Core Lithium collectively announced production cuts and suspensions, accompanied by significant layoffs and equipment reductions.

In contrast to production cuts, competition for lithium resources is heating up. Internationally, global mining giant Rio Tinto announced a transaction agreement with US-based Arcadium Lithium to acquire it through an all-cash deal, valuing the company at $6.7 billion. General Motors announced a joint venture with Canadian lithium miner Lithium Americas to develop the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, US. Domestically, the starting auction price for the mining rights of the Jinzifeng-Yifeng Zuojiari porcelain clay (lithium-containing) mine in Fengxin County, Jiangxi Province, was 280,000 yuan. The final transaction price reached 2.51 billion yuan, nearly 9,000 times the starting price, won by Canmax's subsidiary Yichun Shengyuan Lithium Co., Ltd. Canmax's subsidiary Sichuan Tianhua Times Lithium Energy Co., Ltd. also won the exploration rights for the Rongxukanan lithium mine in Daofu County for 179 million yuan, with a starting price of 1.02 million yuan. Sichuan Natural Resources Investment Group's subsidiary Sichuan Tianfu Mining Investment Co., Ltd. won the exploration rights for the eastern periphery of the Jiajika lithium mine in Kangding City for 70.07 million yuan, with a starting price of 5.7 million yuan. Additionally, CATL's consortium (CBC) signed a "Uyuni Salt Lake Lithium Carbonate Production Service Contract" with Bolivia's YLB. According to media reports, the contract is valued at $1 billion (approximately 7.25 billion yuan).

Commentary: The prolonged low lithium prices signal a clear market exit trend. According to institutional statistics, eight Australian mines have announced production cuts or suspensions during this lithium price downcycle. Although the lithium price decline is expected to continue in the short term, the medium and long-term demand for lithium resources remains significant, driven by the global NEV and ESS industries, intensifying the competition for lithium resources.