US Dollar Index Rebound Limits Copper Price Increase; BC Copper Most-Traded Contract Edges Higher [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM, January 8: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2502 futures contract opened at 66,260 yuan/mt and closed with a bearish candlestick. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper contract hit a high of 66,260 yuan/mt at the open, followed by a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with the futures market testing the key level of 66,000 yuan/mt. During the morning trading session, the futures fluctuated rangebound within 65,970-66,150 yuan/mt. In the afternoon session, the most-traded BC copper 2502 contract dipped to 65,930 yuan/mt before rebounding as bears reduced positions, eventually closing at 66,160 yuan/mt, up 170 yuan/mt or 0.26%. The increase was mainly attributed to short covering. Open interest stood at 5,095 lots, down 459 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,903 lots, a decrease of 3,866 lots from the previous day.

Macro side, recent US data has lowered market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index, which has suppressed copper prices. The most-traded BC copper contract edged up slightly during the day. Tonight, US employment market-related data will be released, and the market awaits further guidance.

The SHFE copper 2502 contract closed at 74,480 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2502 contract price of 66,160 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 74,761 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2502 contract and the BC copper 2502 contract stood at -281 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining inverted and widening compared to the previous trading day.