Tungsten Prices Rise, Rare Earth Raw Material Prices Remain Strong, Minor Metal Sector Gains for Two Consecutive Days, Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Hits Limit-Up [SMM News]

SMM January 7 News:

Influenced by tight supply on the mining side, tungsten prices continued to rise; pre-holiday restocking by rare earth metal plants, combined with maintenance at several separation plants in January, also contributed to the trend. Domestic antimony prices remained stable, while overseas antimony prices surged dramatically. Tight niobium supply drove niobium prices higher in late November. These factors boosted the minor metal sector, which continued its upward trend on January 7 following gains on the 6th. As of the close on the 7th, the minor metal sector rose by 2.82%. In terms of individual stocks, Orient Tantalum Industry hit the daily limit, while Long Magnetic Technology, BOKE New Materials, Western Materials, and Eontec saw significant gains.

News Highlights

[Revised "Statistical System for Outward Direct Investment" Released, Adding Rare Earths, Titanium, Zirconium, and Tantalum Mines to Reporting Requirements] According to the Ministry of Commerce, the "Statistical System for Outward Direct Investment" was first issued in November 2002 as a departmental statistical survey jointly released by the Ministry of Commerce, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. In accordance with NBS regulations, the Ministry of Commerce periodically revises the statistical system, with this being the tenth revision. The new revisions include the addition of "Name of Mining Project" and "Remaining Service Life of Mine" indicators to the annual report form on "Overseas Major Mineral Resources" (FDIN7 form). Newly added metal minerals for reporting include rare earths, titanium, zirconium, and tantalum, while non-metallic minerals now include crystalline graphite, amorphous graphite, boron, and fluorite. The monthly report form on "Basic Matters of Outward Investment and Mergers" (FDIY3 form) now requires additional indicators such as "Type of Mineral Resource" and "Remaining Economically Recoverable Reserves" for acquired mining enterprises (projects).Click for Details

[Orient Tantalum Industry: Market Demand for Tantalum and Niobium Targets Expected to Grow] An investor asked Orient Tantalum Industry on the interactive platform whether the newly released "Molding Shanghai" implementation plan for artificial intelligence in Shanghai would positively impact the development of new rare metal materials such as tantalum, niobium, and beryllium developed by the company. On January 2, the company responded on the investor interaction platform: The company closely monitors national policy directions and market trends, adhering to an R&D-driven approach. Through continuous R&D investment and technological upgrades, it consistently enhances its core competitiveness. In recent years, the expansion of the semiconductor and consumer electronics market size has provided significant growth opportunities for the target material market. Tantalum and niobium targets, as key components of semiconductor sputtering targets and flat panel display targets, are expected to experience rapid growth amid industry expansion and domestic substitution. In traditional sectors, the increasing electrification of the automotive, industrial, and consumer application fields significantly boosts demand for tantalum capacitors. In emerging applications, the development of China's electronics industry chain and advancements in high-frequency communication technology for the civilian market are expected to drive market demand growth.

[Even at $40,000, Buyers Are Lining Up! Overseas Antimony Prices Soar] As numerous buyers scramble to secure limited supply channels, antimony prices, widely used in semiconductors and military applications, continue to rise in overseas markets. The market landscape for this critical raw material has undergone significant changes in just a few months. Market data shows that as of December 31, 2024, antimony traded in Rotterdam (European market) at $39,500-$40,000 per mt, marking a roughly 250% increase over the past year. Traders estimate that, amid ongoing global supply shortages, antimony prices may climb above the record $40,000 level in the near future. A European metal trader stated, "We have sold small batches at $40,000 per mt, and suppliers outside China are charging higher prices to maximize profits."Click for Details

Tungsten

Click to View SMM Tungsten Spot Prices

Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Price Trends

According to SMM quotes, on January 7, the price of black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was 143,500-144,000 yuan/standard mt, with an average price of 143,750 yuan/standard mt, up 750 yuan/standard mt or 0.52% from the previous trading day. Compared to the previous low of 142,250 yuan/standard mt on December 25, 2024, this represents an increase of 1,500 yuan/standard mt or 1.05%.

Market participants reported that expectations of tightening tungsten raw material supply have strengthened, leading to price increases across multiple tungsten industry chain products.

Rare Earths

Click to View SMM Rare Earth Spot Prices

Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Price Trends

Pre-holiday stockpiling by metal plants and maintenance at rare earth separation plants in January drove rare earth raw material prices higher for two consecutive trading days. However, despite increased production efforts by magnetic material enterprises to prepare for the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, the market production atmosphere has slightly improved. Severe price inversions at metal plants suggest that intense back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream are likely to persist. Most magnetic material enterprises are expected to halt production around January 20, limiting the potential for further rare earth price increases.

Domestic Antimony Prices Remain Stable

Click to View SMM Antimony Spot Prices

On January 7, SMM antimony average prices were: 2# low-bismuth antimony ingot at 137,000 yuan/mt, 1# antimony ingot at 140,000 yuan/mt, 0# antimony ingot at 144,000 yuan/mt, and 2# high-bismuth antimony ingot at 134,000 yuan/mt. Entering 2025, the domestic antimony market remains sluggish, with no significant changes in demand, keeping market prices basically stable. End-user demand remains weak, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Apart from some flame retardant and PV glass bidding projects, the market has yet to show signs of pre-holiday stockpiling.

Market participants noted that some large antimony plants in Yunnan and Hunan provinces have announced pre-holiday shutdowns for maintenance, with some planning to halt production for over a month. Combined with the Chinese New Year holiday, actual shutdowns could last about one and a half months. Other antimony product enterprises may also enter maintenance shutdowns in January. As a result, antimony production in January 2025 may significantly decline due to maintenance shutdowns, winter mining, and transportation challenges. Following the price stabilization in November and December 2024, a recovery and rebound trend cannot be ruled out. However, given the weak demand across the market, any price rebound is expected to be relatively small.

Voices from Various Sides

Dongguan Securities Research Report: Minor Metals—Representatives of New Productive Forces. New productive forces are advanced productive forces targeting emerging fields. Minor metals such as rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, germanium, gallium, and antimony, with their unique physical and chemical properties, play indispensable roles in high-end manufacturing, new energy, new materials, semiconductors, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence. As key resources for developing strategic emerging industries, various minor metal materials have garnered widespread attention. New productive forces represent advanced productivity in emerging fields, future industries, and green development. With the deepening of technological innovation, the applications of various minor metals continue to expand, providing strong support for the development of new productive forces. Specifically, the applications of minor metals in new productive forces are mainly concentrated in new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence.

Minsheng Securities Research Report: Emphasize Opportunities in Strategic Advantage Metals, Align with AI and Military Demand Iterations to Drive Material Upgrades. Domestically, strategic advantage metal resources are under absolute control, significantly enhancing their strategic importance. The rapid iteration of AI and military demand drives material upgrades, aligning with the development strategy of new productive forces. Rare Earth Magnetic Materials: Domestic mining quotas are growing at a slower pace, while supply disruptions in Myanmar are frequent. Medium and long-term demand continues to grow, with rare earth prices stabilizing and rebounding from the bottom. Domestic supply-side indicators are growing slowly, and supply disruptions in Myanmar hinder release. Medium and long-term benefits stem from the rapid development of NEVs and energy-efficient motors, with wind power demand marginally improving. Overall demand is steadily increasing, and Pr-Nd oxide supply and demand are expected to return to tight balance. Tungsten: Persistent shortages on the mining side support long-term price growth. Tungsten ore resources are severely depleted, with high-grade black tungsten ore resources gradually diminishing. China accounts for over 80% of global tungsten ore production (2023) and strictly controls total mining volumes, making it difficult to increase tungsten ore supply in the future. Demand for hard alloys is expected to steadily recover, PV tungsten wire is likely to see sustained growth, and geopolitical conflicts may boost tungsten demand in military applications. Overall tungsten demand is expected to grow steadily, with long-term price growth anticipated. Minsheng Securities recommends domestic strategic resource advantage sectors and new material sectors benefiting from AI and military technology iterations. Relevant stocks: JL MAG Rare-Earth, China Tungsten High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Guangxi Wuzhou Huaxin, Yunnan Tin, BOKE New Materials, BOKE New Materials, Orient Tantalum Industry, Baoti Group, Western Superconducting.

Guojin Securities believes: Myanmar's Xunyang mine, as a critical supplier of heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and yttrium and light rare earths, faces frequent supply disruptions and additional resource fees, potentially raising industry cost curves and rare earth price centers. Continued attention to the situation in Myanmar is warranted. Guojin Securities estimates that if rare earth quota growth remains below 15% in 2025, global rare earth supply and demand may continue to improve. This year, rare earth prices have bottomed out, and with significantly strengthened supply and demand expectations and policy catalysts akin to supply-side reforms, commodity price centers are gradually rising. With industry cost curves shifting upward and frequent supply disruptions, we remain optimistic about rare earth price increases. As a globally leading industry with extensive downstream applications and pricing power in China, rare earths are expected to gain significant attention amid the US government transition. We reiterate the upward fundamentals of rare earth stocks and the value re-evaluation opportunities brought by "supply-side reform" policies and their status as "national strategic assets." On the resource side, we recommend focusing on China Northern Rare Earth (leader in light rare earths) and JL MAG Rare-Earth (leader in high-end magnetic materials, involved in humanoid robots).