[SMM Analysis]July 2025 Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Imports Hit Four-Year Low, Plunging 28.4% YoY

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,677.5/mt overnight, initially touched a low of $9,673/mt, then the price center gradually moved upward and approached $9,746.5/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at $9,734.5/mt, up 0.14%, with trading volume reaching 10,000 lots and open interest at 264,000 lots.

[SMMS Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Alloy Fluctuates Upward, Policy Disruptions Intensify Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers of Aluminum Scrap] The aluminum price surged significantly yesterday, with the SMM ADC12 price following suit, rising by 100 yuan/mt to 20,450 yuan/mt. Currently, the supply of aluminum scrap remains tight, leading to a general increase in prices, which in turn pushes up the cost of raw materials for secondary aluminum alloy. Additionally, recent news about the cancellation of tax rebates in multiple regions including Anhui and Jiangxi has led to a strong sentiment among enterprises to raise prices in response to the pressure of increasing costs.

[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Off-Season Suppression Persists but Peak Season Expectations Rise, Aluminum Prices Maintain Range-Bound Pattern] High aluminum prices have somewhat suppressed off-season consumption, but as the peak season approaches, expectations for improved orders are growing. The pressure of aluminum ingot inventory entering warehouses has decreased during the week, with inventories slightly dropping to 596,000 mt. The SHFE aluminum Back structure has strengthened slightly, supporting aluminum prices to rebound above $20,600/mt. Overall, in the short term, consumption is only marginally improving, and there is a risk of inventory buildup again. However, the current total inventory is not high, and some secondary aluminum enterprises in provinces such as Anhui and Jiangxi have received notices of the termination of tax rebate policies, posing a risk of declining capacity utilization rates for scrap utilization enterprises, which provides some support for primary aluminum consumption. Going forward, aluminum prices will need to wait for the realization of the peak consumption season. It is expected that next week, SHFE aluminum will trade within the range of 20,500-20,800 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum will trade within the range of $2,540-2,600/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Macro Disturbances and Peak Season Expectations Intertwined, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Upward in the Short Term Awaiting Validation]

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,679.5/mt overnight, fluctuated rangebound at $9,670.5/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward to a high of $9,712/mt, and finally closed at $9,721/mt, up 0.38%, with trading volume reaching 14,000 lots and open interest reaching 263,000 lots.

[smm cast aluminum alloy morning comment: july aluminum alloy imports saw a significant YoY decline while aluminum scrap imports continued to rise on a YoY basis] aluminum prices pulled back slightly yesterday, with the SMM ADC12 price holding steady at 20,350 yuan/mt. currently, the supply of aluminum scrap remains tight, leading to a slower drop in aluminum scrap prices and supporting secondary aluminum alloy prices due to high raw material costs. additionally, recent news about the cancellation of tax rebates in multiple areas of anhui and jiangxi has led companies to maintain firm quotations in response to rising cost pressures.

[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamentals Intertwined, Aluminum Prices Maintain Volatile Pattern] MIIT convened a photovoltaic industry symposium, deploying measures to strengthen the management of PV project investments, promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity through market-oriented and law-based methods. In terms of supply, there were relatively small changes, with aluminum production holding steady and showing slight growth. On the demand side, the September-October peak season is approaching, but under the current off-season influence, consumption from end-users to processed materials is unlikely to exceed expectations. The home appliance and PV sectors, which previously provided strong support, are slowing down, and some export orders for aluminum terminals have also declined, while the construction sector continues to experience an unusually sharp downturn. Amidst the off-season atmosphere, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs, yet the recovery in consumption remains relatively weak. With supply still abundant, inventory buildup is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, macro tailwinds both domestically and overseas, combined with potential risks in aluminum supply, keep prices holding up well. However, during the consumption off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices may face the risk of jumping initially and then pulling back, with the 21000 yuan/mt level remaining under pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and market sentiment.