PV Profiles Face Stronger Off-Season Atmosphere; Raw Material Prices May Fluctuate Downward [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, January 3

EnteringJanuary, PV aluminum extrusion has entered the off-season, with leading PV frame suppliers showing significant signs of production cuts. Coupled with the lack of improvement in short-term production schedules of downstream module manufacturers, the operating rate of PV aluminum extrusion is expected to continue declining in January. Meanwhile, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, reports of order cutoffs and holiday plans from enterprises across regions are emerging, which will further exacerbate the downward trend in the overall operating rate of the industry. SMM will continue to monitor and provide updates.

Raw Material Prices: During the period (2024.12.30-2025.01.03), spot aluminum average prices fluctuated, with SMM A00 weekly average price at 19,798 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW, a decrease of 0.05%. Overall, the macro side leans bearish, with the US dollar and US bond yields exerting resistance on aluminum prices. On the fundamentals, overseas alumina production resumption and new domestic capacity additions are gradually easing the tight supply of alumina, potentially reducing cost-side pressure for aluminum. Next week, as some processing enterprises gradually enter the Chinese New Year holiday mode, the pace of inventory destocking is expected to slow, potentially initiating a new inventory buildup cycle. In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate downward. Key attention should be paid to the shipment pace of Guinean ore. Currently, domestic port inventories are relatively sufficient, with minimal short-term impact on the supply side, though it still provides some support to market sentiment.

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