Weekly Operating Rate of Copper Wire and Cable Enterprises Declines for Four Consecutive Weeks! Will It Stop Falling Next Week? [SMM Analysis]

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       This week, the operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises was 77.9%, down 4.42 percentage points WoW and 7.33 percentage points YoY. Compared to the expected operating rate, it was only 0.36 percentage points higher, aligning overall with the seasonal weakening trend. As the year-end approaches, market purchasing enthusiasm has declined, and order volumes have significantly decreased. Although the week has entered 2025, the sharp drop in copper prices has led most customers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Orders accumulated for 2025 have not yet been significantly released, and the market remains focused on copper price trends.

Data Source: SMM

       This week, raw material inventories of sampled copper wire and cable enterprises decreased by 2.57% MoM to 20,870 mt, while finished product inventories fell by 2.92% MoM to 16,630 mt. As the year-end approaches, wire and cable enterprises have been actively promoting downstream goods pickup while strictly controlling raw material procurement to reduce year-end capital occupation, resulting in a downward trend for both.

       SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable enterprises to rebound by 0.65 percentage points MoM to 78.55% next week (1.3-1.9). After entering 2025, orders delayed due to payment terms and settlement issues before the year-end may gradually be released, leading to a slight short-term rebound in the operating rate. However, as the Chinese New Year approaches, most enterprises are expected to start preparations for the holiday, limiting the sustained growth of new orders. According to SMM, most enterprises remain cautious about 2025. While many believe that power grid-related orders will remain stable, uncertainties surrounding new energy power generation orders have increased, and orders from the real estate and infrastructure sectors continue to show weakness. Additionally, the impact of aluminum orders on the copper wire and cable market may further intensify, posing challenges for the copper wire and cable market in 2025.