Polysilicon Production Schedule and Inventory Both Decline: Is the Market's Claim of Polysilicon Price Increase True? [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 31, 2024 14:20

Save

[SMM Analysis: Polysilicon Production Schedule and Inventory Both Decline, Is the Rumored Polysilicon Price Increase True?] On the morning of December 30, the market widely reported that some top-tier polysilicon enterprises sold polysilicon at 45 yuan/kg, either to crystal pulling plants or to traders. Is this truly the case in the market?

SMM, December 31: On the morning of December 30, the market circulated news that some top-tier polysilicon enterprises sold polysilicon at 45 yuan/kg, either to crystal pulling plants or traders. Is this truly the case in the market? Earlier, polysilicon had already experienced several rounds of continuous price increases, with prices quoted at 42 yuan/kg starting mid-month and rising to 44 yuan/kg around the time of listing... The sentiment in the polysilicon market has gradually been boosted. First, according to SMM detection data, the overall supply and demand situation for polysilicon has indeed improved. On one hand, polysilicon production has continued to decline. In December, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 93,000 mt, down 19.8% MoM from November, mainly due to the impact of production halts at multiple bases during the dry season. Polysilicon production is expected to continue declining in January, with an estimated decrease of around 2%. A base in Inner Mongolia is expected to undergo production cuts in January, becoming the main factor disrupting this production change. The continuous decline in production has alleviated the supply pressure on polysilicon. On the other hand, polysilicon inventory has also seen a significant decline recently. According to SMM data, the latest weekly polysilicon inventory was approximately 222,000 mt, down 23.44% from its peak. In mid-to-early December, several large orders were signed for polysilicon, with some enterprises destocking by around 20,000-30,000 mt. It is understood that the reasons for this destocking, besides the production cuts in polysilicon, also include stockpiling by downstream enterprises ahead of the Chinese New Year. Additionally, the rise in downstream prices, the entry of some traders, and the listing of futures have all supported the improvement in polysilicon market sentiment. Regarding the current market concern over transactions at 45 yuan/kg, SMM understands that there are indeed individual orders in the market, with some enterprises even quoting such prices externally as early as last week. However, these cases are very limited in representativeness, and the mainstream execution price currently remains at 40-41 yuan/kg. For the latest transactions, there is still a certain degree of market hesitation. Polysilicon enterprises are mostly quoting prices at 42 yuan/kg or above, while crystal pulling plants show some resistance to prices exceeding 42 yuan/kg. Additionally, with large-scale stockpiling just completed, the likelihood of representative large orders reappearing in the market is relatively small. 》View the SMM PV Industry Chain Database

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

13 hours ago

[SMM Analysis]Engie Acquires UK Power Network Company for $10 Billion

French energy giant Engie recently announced it will fully acquire the UK's largest distribution network operator, UK Power Networks (UKPN), for an equity consideration of approximately £10.5 billion (around $14.2 billion). This transaction marks the strategic exit of the original controlling shareholder, the consortium led by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group, after holding the asset for 16 years.

13 hours ago

Feb 26, 2026 19:38

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of the Supply-Demand Status of China's PV Glass Industry Importing Quartz Sand from Indonesia

In recent years, the PV industry has entered a period of deep adjustment, with module prices continuing to decline, and both upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain facing severe profit compression. Driven by the imperative of "extreme cost reduction," PV glass, a key auxiliary material for PV modules, has imposed increasingly stringent requirements on the cost and quality of upstream raw materials.

Feb 26, 2026 19:38

Feb 26, 2026 17:54

[SMM PV News] Pakistan Shifts to Net Billing

Pakistan has officially transitioned to a net billing regime for solar, slashing the export rate for excess power from PKR 26 ($0.093) to PKR 13 per kWh. However, a controversial attempt by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) to apply these lower rates retroactively to existing net metering contract holders was quashed following intervention by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Responding to public backlash, the Prime Minister ordered that existing agreements be honored, prompting Nepra to issue a draft amendment ensuring current users retain their original tariffs until their contracts expire.

Feb 26, 2026 17:54