Polysilicon Production Schedule and Inventory Both Decline: Is the Market's Claim of Polysilicon Price Increase True? [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 31, 2024 14:20

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[SMM Analysis: Polysilicon Production Schedule and Inventory Both Decline, Is the Rumored Polysilicon Price Increase True?] On the morning of December 30, the market widely reported that some top-tier polysilicon enterprises sold polysilicon at 45 yuan/kg, either to crystal pulling plants or to traders. Is this truly the case in the market?

SMM, December 31: On the morning of December 30, the market circulated news that some top-tier polysilicon enterprises sold polysilicon at 45 yuan/kg, either to crystal pulling plants or traders. Is this truly the case in the market? Earlier, polysilicon had already experienced several rounds of continuous price increases, with prices quoted at 42 yuan/kg starting mid-month and rising to 44 yuan/kg around the time of listing... The sentiment in the polysilicon market has gradually been boosted. First, according to SMM detection data, the overall supply and demand situation for polysilicon has indeed improved. On one hand, polysilicon production has continued to decline. In December, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 93,000 mt, down 19.8% MoM from November, mainly due to the impact of production halts at multiple bases during the dry season. Polysilicon production is expected to continue declining in January, with an estimated decrease of around 2%. A base in Inner Mongolia is expected to undergo production cuts in January, becoming the main factor disrupting this production change. The continuous decline in production has alleviated the supply pressure on polysilicon. On the other hand, polysilicon inventory has also seen a significant decline recently. According to SMM data, the latest weekly polysilicon inventory was approximately 222,000 mt, down 23.44% from its peak. In mid-to-early December, several large orders were signed for polysilicon, with some enterprises destocking by around 20,000-30,000 mt. It is understood that the reasons for this destocking, besides the production cuts in polysilicon, also include stockpiling by downstream enterprises ahead of the Chinese New Year. Additionally, the rise in downstream prices, the entry of some traders, and the listing of futures have all supported the improvement in polysilicon market sentiment. Regarding the current market concern over transactions at 45 yuan/kg, SMM understands that there are indeed individual orders in the market, with some enterprises even quoting such prices externally as early as last week. However, these cases are very limited in representativeness, and the mainstream execution price currently remains at 40-41 yuan/kg. For the latest transactions, there is still a certain degree of market hesitation. Polysilicon enterprises are mostly quoting prices at 42 yuan/kg or above, while crystal pulling plants show some resistance to prices exceeding 42 yuan/kg. Additionally, with large-scale stockpiling just completed, the likelihood of representative large orders reappearing in the market is relatively small. 》View the SMM PV Industry Chain Database

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