[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Domestic and Overseas Liquidity Easing Supports Aluminum Prices to Hover at Highs] Overall, on the macro front, both domestic and overseas macro sentiment leans positive, with market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts strengthening, which is bullish for aluminum prices and the non-ferrous metals sector. On the fundamental side, the domestic fundamentals currently struggle to provide strong support for sustained aluminum price increases, as end-use demand remains weak and the proportion of liquid aluminum declines accordingly. In summary, although fundamental drivers are limited, the macro performance both domestically and overseas remains optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to fluctuate at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Surge to Highs, Driving Active Follow-on Increases in Alloy Prices] Spot market, SMM A00 aluminum price surged by 160 yuan/mt to 22,030 yuan/mt, while ADC12 price rose rapidly by 150 yuan/mt to 21,950 yuan/mt. Aluminum prices climbed back above 22,000 yuan/mt, driving secondary aluminum prices to actively increase. Currently, raw material supply is relatively tight, coupled with secondary aluminum enterprises entering a stockpiling phase, aluminum scrap demand has risen, leading to rapid price increases and pushing up ADC12 costs. Additionally, copper prices hit a new high of 94,690 yuan/mt, driving significant price increases for aluminum tense scrap and high-copper-content alloy ingots. However, demand side is marginally weakening, with overall market transactions performing sluggishly; supply side, affected by environmental protection-related controls or losses, still faces reduction pressure. Overall, cost support and supply tightening jointly solidify the price floor, but demand slowdown and aluminum prices fluctuating at highs are suppressing downstream purchase willingness. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates Rangebound in Night Session, Game Between Macro Boost and Inventory Pressure Intensifies] Overall, macro front, domestic and overseas macro sentiment leans positive, with market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts strengthening, boosting base metal prices. Fundamentally, domestic fundamentals currently struggle to provide strong support for sustained aluminum price increases, end-use demand remains weak, and the proportion of liquid aluminum declines accordingly. In summary, although fundamental drivers are limited, domestic and overseas macro performance remains optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to fluctuate at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Year-End Aluminum Scrap Demand Rises, Significant Cost Support for Secondary Aluminum] In yesterday's spot market, the SMM A00 aluminum price pulled back by 60 yuan/mt to 21,870 yuan/mt, while the ADC12 price held firm at 21,800 yuan/mt. Today, the aluminum price edged down slightly, but the secondary aluminum market remained generally stable. Currently, raw material supply is tightening, coupled with secondary aluminum enterprises entering a stockpiling phase, aluminum scrap demand is rising, and traders' sentiment to hold prices firm is evident, providing support for secondary aluminum costs. However, demand side, marginal weakening is observed, and overall market transactions performed sluggish. Supply side, recent heavy pollution weather warnings were activated in multiple regions, some secondary aluminum enterprises faced production restrictions or shutdowns, leading to a slight contraction in supply. Overall, cost support and tightening supply jointly solidify the price bottom, but demand slowdown and aluminum prices fluctuating at highs are curbing downstream purchase willingness. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term.

Recently, the domestic aluminum ingot market inventory structure has undergone a phased adjustment. The previously troubling backlog of shipments from Xinjiang has been gradually resolved, leading to a rebound in supply chain circulation efficiency. However, at the same time, inventory buildup pressure has emerged in some storage areas, compounded by regional market differences and weak downstream demand. As a result, domestic aluminum ingot inventory is characterized by "overall circulation improvement with localized pressure becoming prominent." This article provides an in-depth analysis of the current domestic aluminum ingot inventory situation based on the latest shipment, in-transit, and storage area feedback data, and offers predictions for future trends...

【SMM Analysis】The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU’s CBAM) took a decisive step from its pilot phase towards actual enforcement in December 2025, only a month before it becomes effective January 2026. The aluminium sector, with a total trade value of USD 448 billion in 2024, faces CBAM's carbon-accounting requirements alongside five other high-carbon sectors. Changes look to favour low-carbon production through responsible sourcing of raw materials and energy usage, as well as rewarding countries taking initiatives to implement equivalents to CBAM. On the flip side, CBAM imposes higher costs on trading partners of aluminium products with high-carbon emission. This series of policies will likely raise aluminium products prices for consumers in the EU in the short-term, and reshape aluminium’s trade flow for years to come. This article will cover CBAM basics and frameworks, incorporate the newest updates of the December 17 package and provide aluminium sector-specific implications and outlooks.

[SMM Analysis]In November 2025, unwrought aluminum alloy imports were 73,200 mt, down 28.2% YoY and down 4.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to November 2025 were 914,200 mt, down 17.5% YoY.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Internal Review]