Alumina Market: Supply-Demand Decline Triggers Price Negotiation Tug-of-War

[SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Supply and Demand Both Decline, Tug-of-War on Alumina Resurfaces]

Supply side, the domestic operating rate of alumina refineries slightly decreased this week, mainly due to the impact of environmental protection policies in northern regions on the roasting process of some alumina refineries, as well as maintenance of roasting furnaces at certain refineries.

Demand side, SMM learned that some aluminum smelters in Sichuan have recently started production cuts due to losses and maintenance needs, which are expected to affect an annual aluminum capacity of 205,000 mt, leading to a slight decline in downstream production demand.

Overall, in the short term, the fundamentals of alumina are unlikely to see a significant surplus. Suppliers still show sentiment to stand firm on quotes, but with alumina prices remaining high, downstream buyers exhibit strong resistance to high prices, resulting in cautious spot procurement. In the short term, the market may enter a stage of back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, with spot alumina prices likely to remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range.