October Imports of Secondary Copper Raw Material Increased Both YoY and MoM: Will the Growth Continue in November? [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 183,000 mt of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap in October 2024, up 14.22% MoM and up 17.88% YoY (HS code 74040000).

In September, imports of secondary copper raw material showed a downward trend both YoY and MoM. However, in October, imports increased on both bases due to two main reasons: Firstly, in terms of import profitability, secondary copper raw material imports were entirely in a loss state in September, directly suppressing traders' willingness to import. It was not until mid-to-late October that the import window opened, prompting some traders to actively purchase, leading to a slight MoM increase in October imports. Secondly, copper prices continued to rise in September, dampening the sentiment of import traders. In October, copper prices fell and stabilized within the range of 76,000-77,000 yuan/mt, slightly boosting traders' sentiment and resulting in an increase in copper scrap imports compared to September.

Specifically, in terms of suppliers, the US, Japan, and Malaysia continued to occupy the top three positions. The US, as the largest supplier, exported approximately 35,000 mt of copper scrap (copper scrap and shredded copper scrap) to China in the month, up 11.23% MoM. Japan rose to become the second-largest supplier, exporting approximately 23,000 mt of copper scrap to China in the month, up 42.19% MoM.

Looking ahead, internationally, copper prices are expected to decline in November, coupled with uncertainties brought by the US election, leading overseas traders to hold back cargoes amid tight supply. Domestically, import traders and downstream players are also adopting a wait-and-see attitude. According to local import traders in Ningbo, recent purchasing activities have been mediocre. Additionally, starting from November 15, new customs regulations have been enforced, making import inspections more stringent, with some imported goods now subject to an additional 1.5% tariff. Traders report that this significantly increases import costs, further reducing their purchase willingness amid existing losses. In summary, SMM expects that copper scrap imports may show a downward trend next month.