SMM Analysis On China October Alumina Production And November Forecast

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in October 2024 (31 days) increased by 2.93% MoM and was up 6.51% YoY. As of November 7, China's existing capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina increased by 1.1 million mt MoM, with the actual operating capacity up 2.93% MoM, and the operating rate at 84.22%. From January to October 2024, the cumulative production of domestic metallurgical-grade alumina was up 3.96% YoY.

By region: In mid-to-late October, heavy pollution weather warnings were issued successively in north China, affecting the roasting process of some alumina refineries. Additionally, some companies experienced reduced roasting due to equipment failures, impacting short-term operating capacity. In Chongqing, an alumina refinery conducted phased maintenance at the end of the month, affecting October's operating capacity. In Shandong, a new alumina capacity is still ramping up and has not yet contributed to October's metallurgical-grade alumina production. Furthermore, according to the SMM survey, some alumina refineries are accelerating production considering their long-term contract execution.

Forecast for November: Entering November, some new capacities may finish ramping up and start shipping. Combined with the recovery of capacities previously affected by environmental protection and equipment maintenance, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to rise again in November, potentially reaching 87.32 million mt/year. On the raw material side, there is no further news on the resumption of domestic ore production, and supply remains tight. Imported ore supply is at a low level due to the rainy season in Guinea, indicating an overall tight supply of bauxite, which continues to limit the increase in alumina operating capacity. SMM expects that the daily average production of China's metallurgical-grade alumina in November 2024 will increase by 1.77% MoM. Continuous attention is needed on the pace of new and resumed alumina capacity releases.