Guinea Bauxite Shipments Experience Both Disruptions and Increases, Short-term Shipments May Fluctuate [SMM Analysis]

SMM, October 29: Arrival Data: According to data on October 25, the total weekly arrival volume of bauxite at domestic ports was 3.7304 million mt, down 169,300 mt WoW. The average weekly arrival volume for the current four weeks of October was 3.32 million mt/week, up 470,000 mt/week MoM from the average weekly arrival volume of 2.85 million mt/week in September. It is expected that October arrivals will increase compared to September but may still be below pre-rainy season levels.

Departure Data: According to data from October 25, the weekly departure volume of bauxite from Guinea's main ports was 1.8103 million mt, down 398,000 mt WoW from 2.2083 million mt the previous week. After adding the Boffa departure data, the weekly departure volume of bauxite from Guinea's main ports was 266.48, down 927,500 mt WoW from 3.5923 million mt the previous week. According to data on October 25, the weekly departure volume of bauxite from Australia's main ports was 933,300 mt, up 16,100 mt WoW from the previous week.

In Guinea, a recent bauxite company faced export obstacles, causing a suspension of shipments. However, with the end of the rainy season, some companies have seen an increase in shipments, and there are also some new bauxite projects that may see an increase in shipments in the future. In the short term, Guinea's bauxite shipments will experience both disruptions and increases. However, due to the difficulty of new projects achieving stable weekly shipment volumes, the weekly departure volume of bauxite may experience periodic fluctuations.

SMM Brief Comment: Disruptions in Guinea have resurfaced, but considering that companies with long-term import contracts have relatively sufficient bauxite raw material inventory, and the shipping time from Guinea to China is nearly 40-45 days, domestic alumina production is unlikely to be affected by the current disruptions in Guinea in the short term. However, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea continues to be reflected in domestic arrivals. Although October bauxite arrivals may increase MoM, they are expected to remain below pre-rainy season levels. Domestic bauxite supply remains tight, and alumina production may continue to be affected by the supply of ore raw materials. In the short term, both bauxite prices and spot alumina prices are expected to have strong support.