In August, Indonesia's stainless steel exports fell by approximately 21.76% MoM, with cold-rolled exports hitting a historic low [SMM Analysis]

In August 2024, Indonesia exported about 62,900 mt of stainless steel to China, down approximately 37,700 mt from the previous month, a MoM decline of about 37.45% and a YoY decline of about 66.48%.

By country, among the top ten export destinations in August, only Thailand saw a significant recovery in export volume, while other countries maintained slight increases or decreases. Major export destinations such as China, China Taiwan, India, and Vietnam experienced significant declines, performing lower-than-expected. Overall, the total stainless steel export volume fell to a new low for the year at approximately 313,800 mt, down about 87,500 mt from the previous month. Additionally, the total volume exported to the top ten countries accounted for 99.87% of the month's exports, down 0.05 percentage points from the previous month. In August, the domestic stainless steel market remained in the off-season, with social inventory continuing to build up, leading to a decline in spot prices. Additionally, the transmission of anti-dumping policies on Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel from overseas also impacted domestic and foreign demand in both markets, with declining market demand affecting exports. Furthermore, an SMM survey found that Indonesia's Yongwang cold-rolling mill began maintenance in June, causing cold-rolled export volumes to decline month by month since June, reaching a historic low of approximately 32,800 mt in August. On the raw material side, Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB did not receive new quota approvals in August, leading to tight nickel ore supplies in Indonesia's main stainless steel production areas. This tight raw material situation not only limited stainless steel production but also affected export tax receipts due to the nickel ore quota issue, restricting exports. Looking at other countries, Thailand maintained a significant increase in August, driven by a phase of just-in-time inventory replenishment. Thailand's manufacturing PMI in August was 52, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory but with slowed activity. The rapid expansion of Thailand's new energy industry in recent years has boosted economic activity, leading to optimistic demand for stainless steel. In summary, the combined impact of overseas anti-dumping measures and nickel ore resource policies may pose new challenges for Indonesia's stainless steel exports. However, with a slight easing of nickel ore resources, Indonesia's stainless steel export volume is expected to improve in September compared to August.

By type, in August, stainless steel scrap exports were approximately 5,000 mt, up 9.27% MoM and up 17.68% YoY; stainless steel billet exports were approximately 107,500 mt, down 45.4% MoM and down 35.42% YoY; hot-rolled stainless steel exports were approximately 168,500 mt, up 11.30% MoM and up 49% YoY; cold-rolled exports stainless steel were approximately 32,800 mt, down 31.97% MoM and down 68.16% YoY; stainless steel wire rod exports were approximately 0.66 mt, down 99.02% MoM and down 98.86% YoY.