September's operating rates of copper billet producers slightly increased, expected to continue warming in October [SMM Analysis]

According to SMM survey data, the operating rate of copper billet enterprises in September 2024 was 50.98%, up 0.42% MoM. Specifically, the operating rate of large enterprises was 52.27%, medium-sized enterprises 50.6%, and small enterprises 43.96%. (Surveyed enterprises: 56, capacity: 2.25 million mt)

The operating rate in the copper billet market slightly increased MoM in September. According to SMM, due to the seasonal off-peak period in refrigeration, demand in this sector decreased, leading to a rapid decline in continuous casting billet orders. Except for one major high-precision copper billet enterprise, most large enterprises saw a decline in orders. However, due to the extended National Day holiday this year, downstream enterprises had significant pre-holiday stocking demand. Coupled with the rise in copper prices at the end of September, there was some fear of price hikes, and orders from small and medium enterprises were moderate, resulting in an overall increase in order volume. Overall, the increase in September's operating rate mainly came from pre-holiday stocking by downstream enterprises, with no significant improvement in overall consumption levels.

According to SMM survey, the operating rate of copper billet in October 2024 is expected to be 52.21%, up 1.23% MoM.

According to SMM, as the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for the copper billet market, enterprises have strong expectations for improved orders in October. Demand mainly comes from two areas: the recovery of valve demand in the refrigeration industry and increased demand for plumbing and sanitary ware in overseas markets in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, copper billet enterprises are concerned about the narrowing profit margins, as significant consumption shrinkage leads more enterprises to engage in price wars, intensifying cut-throat competition. From the raw material perspective, the price of imported recycled brass alloy materials has recently shown profitability, prompting traders and copper billet plants in Zhejiang to start pricing for fourth-quarter production, with expectations of increased raw material supply in the future.