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Home / Metal News / SMM Analysis On China September NPI Production And October Forecast

SMM Analysis On China September NPI Production And October Forecast

Oct 14, 2024 10:25

Source:SMM

In September 2024, the national NPI production in physical content decreased by approximately 0.95% MoM, while the metal content increased by about 4.83% MoM.

In September 2024, the national NPI production in physical content decreased by approximately 0.95% MoM, while the metal content increased by about 4.83% MoM. The decline in physical content and rise in metal content were mainly due to the decline in low-grade NPI production amid falling prices of 200-series stainless steel. With expanded losses, integrated 200-series stainless steel mills adjusted their production pace, reducing the output of 200-series stainless steel and consequently lowering low-grade NPI production. Additionally, in September, a smelter in east China resumed part of its production lines and ramped up production, while a smelter in north China saw an increase in production driven by downstream demand for high-grade NPI, boosting the overall national NPI metal content. Reviewing September, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward, but with support from downstream stainless steel demand and cost support, smelters' losses improved compared to before, driving a recovery in production. Overall, the metal content of high-grade NPI increased by 7.10% compared to August.

In October 2024, national NPI production in physical content is expected to rise by approximately 5.36% MoM, with metal content expected to increase by about 2.69% MoM. According to an SMM survey, a smelter in north China plans to overhaul a production line, leading to a decrease in output compared to September, while a smelter in east China continues to ramp up production on its restored line, supporting high-grade NPI production. Additionally, in October, stainless steel prices are expected to rebound due to favorable macro policies, with profits for 200-series stainless steel recovering, leading to higher production expectations. Integrated 200-series stainless steel plants are expected to increase low-grade NPI output, with physical content expected to rise by about 7.26% in October. In summary, domestic NPI production in October is expected to reach a yearly high.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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