Record-breaking Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Exports in August: Can Downstream Demand Surge? [SMM Commentary]

According to customs data, in August 2024, China's rare earth permanent magnet exports reached a record 5,326 mt, up 26.1% YoY.

However, this news did not cause significant market fluctuations. Some industry insiders stated that in the short term, the record-breaking export volume in August had little impact on the overall market. Due to increasing competition in the foreign trade market, the number of domestic enterprises engaged in foreign trade is rising, while foreign industrial chain technology is gradually maturing and eroding the market share of magnetic material companies, leading to a reduction in orders for some enterprises.

Supply side, the reduction in upstream rare earth ore supply and a significant decrease in the growth of mining quotas, along with optimistic expectations from upstream raw material companies, have led to a continuous rise in rare earth material prices. Magnetic material companies face pressure from production costs and year-end sales targets, which force them to compress profits to maintain normal production, while buyers remain cautious.

However, recent news of a US Fed interest rate cut is expected to increase foreign trade orders for magnetic material companies. Meanwhile, factors such as the upcoming implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" and frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers have boosted corporate confidence to some extent, with increased activity observed. SMM predicts that with the arrival of the fourth quarter, downstream rare earth orders may see a slight increase.