US Dollar Index Rose, Copper Prices Were Under Pressure [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,758.5/mt, initially dipped to $9,752/mt, then rose to a high of $9,873.5/mt during the session, and finally dropped back slightly to close at $9,801/mt, down 0.2%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest was 284,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2411 opened at and dipped to 77,210 yuan/mt, initially rose to a high of 77,820 yuan/mt, then fluctuated rangebound and finally closed at 77,330 yuan/mt, down 0.13%. Trading volume reached 46,000 lots, and open interest was 169,000 lots. Macro side, the US will release weekly initial jobless claims and August core PCE in the next two days, which may provide more market guidance. Before the data release, the US dollar index rebounded, putting pressure on copper prices. Additionally, the prospect of Libya's supply recovery and persistent demand concerns led to weaker international crude oil prices, dragging copper prices down. Fundamentally, supply side, as copper prices continued to rise, traders' pessimism about future spot consumption resurfaced, leading to a noticeable increase in concentrated shipments. Copper cathode spot supply increased, and spot premiums/discounts were under pressure. Demand side, with few trading days left before the National Day holiday, downstream demand has significantly slowed due to high copper prices, focusing on restocking as needed, with overall consumption performance being mediocre. Price side, copper prices are expected to stabilize before the release of key US economic data.