SHFE nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range this week. To comprehensively analyze nickel price trends, we consider multiple dimensions:
1. Capital Side
From a technical perspective, the current market structure indicates that bears are still actively selling, pushing down nickel prices. However, the spot orders in the market show a slight preference for long positions. The reasons behind this contradictory phenomenon include:
Large bearish orders exit in small quantities: Large bearish orders are anchored on the global low-cost electro-deposited nickel capacity. With the sentiment that the Indonesian nickel ore quota may be approved earlier than expected, there may be further short entries in the future.
Preference for Long Spot Orders: The market's preference for long spot orders is due to the influence of nickel futures prices on other segments of the nickel industry chain. Many nickel products' prices are close to the cost line. If prices continue to decline, enterprises in these industry chain segments may incur losses and reduce production, thus providing support for nickel prices.
2. Macroeconomic Data
Macroeconomic data also has a significant impact on nickel price trends:
US Fed Policy: The US Fed's interest rate cut cycle is approaching, and the market previously had positive expectations about this. The latest disclosed CPI data indicates that the US economy is slowly landing, and recession expectations have somewhat decreased.
Commodity Prices: Boosted by the CPI, prices of gold, silver, and commodities steadily rose. Nickel prices started a rebound channel in the latter part of the week, following the broader market.
3. Short-Term Fundamental Analysis
In the absence of sufficient macro support, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate more with fundamental changes in the short term:
Domestic Market: The domestic refined nickel market might have a slight further downward space, expected to be around 120,000 yuan/mt. If prices fall further, it may lead to overselling, at which point investors can consider more matching hedge strategies.
International Market: Around the Mid-Autumn Festival, the expectation for new developments in the approval quota of nickel ore RKAB in Indonesia within the month becomes clearer. Market consensus is forming around more quota approvals in the mid-to-late part of the month. Consequently, the nickel ore spot market has dropped in advance under this viewpoint. Subsequently, Indonesia's raw material supply is expected to increase, providing weakening cost support for the midstream smelting end.
4. Key Data
Based on CPI data and statements from US Fed officials, there may be new momentum for nickel prices in September. If the macro environment is favorable, nickel prices may break through the 130,000 yuan/mt level. The core focus remains the US Fed's latest interest rate decision result next Wednesday (Sep 18), a critical factor for subsequent nickel price trends.
In conclusion, we estimated SHFE nickel prices to range between 121,000 and 128,00 yuan/mt next week, with an average of 124,500 yuan/mt. Investors should closely monitor macro data, especially changes in the US CPI data, to adjust their strategies accordingly.
