Domestic Aluminum Operating Capacity Hits New High, August Aluminum Production Up 1.8% YoY [SMM Data]

SMM, September 5: According to SMM statistics, in August 2024 (31 days), domestic aluminum production was 3.6887 million mt, up 1.80% YoY. The continuous release of new capacity in Inner Mongolia and the temporary lack of significant impact from power rationing in Sichuan on aluminum production maintained the YoY and MoM growth trend in domestic aluminum production. The transition between peak and off-peak seasons, combined with the resumption of production after maintenance in downstream billet plants, led to a 2.3 percentage point MoM increase and a slight 0.3 percentage point YoY increase in the proportion of liquid aluminum to approximately 73.06%. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, the domestic aluminum casting ingot production in August increased by 0.83% YoY to around 993,600 mt.
Capacity Changes: As of the end of August, SMM statistics show that the existing domestic aluminum capacity was about 45.36 million mt, with an operating capacity of approximately 4,349 mt, and the industry's operating rate increased by 1.21 percentage points YoY to 95.88%. The continuous release of new capacity in Inner Mongolia and the temporary lack of significant impact from power rationing in Sichuan on local aluminum production kept other regions' aluminum smelters operating steadily.
Production Forecast: Entering September 2024, domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain stable, mainly due to the anticipated commissioning of technical renovation capacity in Sichuan and Guizhou in October. SMM expects the annualized domestic aluminum operating capacity to remain at 43.491 million mt/year by the end of September, with a production of around 3.57 million mt in September (30 days). With the traditional September-October peak season approaching, positive news from downstream processing sectors has slightly boosted demand, which may drive the operating rate of intermediate products like aluminum billets to rise again. It is expected that the proportion of liquid aluminum will adjust to around 74% in September. Continued attention is needed on the resumption of aluminum production in various regions and the operating conditions of downstream products like aluminum billets.