【SMM Analysis】The price of ternary precursors remains stable and ternary cathode material merchants have entered the monthly procurement node

[SMM Analysis: Solid-State Battery Next Decade Series 9, Part 4: Will It Be Dragged Under the Wheels of PV-Style Industry-Wide Involution?] Solid-state batteries will not face PV-style industry-wide involution in the short term: unconsolidated technology routes, high capital barriers, and yields of only 50%-60% serve as firewalls. From 2027 to 2029, there will be phased risks, including pilot-line surplus and localized price wars on the equipment side; after 2030, if technology routes consolidate, leading capacity is released, and demand growth slows, industry-wide involution could emerge, with intensity likely lower than in PV but with slower market exit. Given the lessons learned from PV, the solid-state battery industry is fully capable of avoiding involution.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and six other departments jointly issued the New-type Battery Industry Development 15th Five-Year Plan. The plan proposes to improve energy density, power density, and cycle life through process optimization, material upgrades, and structural innovation. It calls for developing high-safety consumer electronics lithium batteries, improving the safety, fast-charging performance, low-temperature adaptability, lightweight design, and energy density of power batteries for NEVs and electric vessels, and developing high-safety, large-capacity, grid-forming, ultra-long cycle life ESS batteries.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Battery Industry Development. It proposes optimizing the layout of the lithium battery industry in accordance with the principles of regional agglomeration and concentration of main entities. It guides various regions to leverage their comparative advantages and achieve differentiated and specialized coordinated development. It consolidates and enhances the role of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as driving forces for high-quality development, better leverages the role of coastal urban agglomerations such as Guangdong-Fujian-Zhejiang, and accelerates the cultivation of advanced manufacturing clusters for new-type batteries. Relying on the industrial foundations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Yellow River Basin, and the Northeast region, it promotes the strengthening, supplementation, quality improvement, and upgrading of the new-type battery industry chain. Based on the resources of the central and western regions, it enhances the resilience of the new-type battery industry chain.