Analysis of Nickel Ore Import Data for July 2024 [SMM Data]

SMM reported on August 20 that, according to the latest data from China Customs, China's nickel ore imports in July 2024 were 3.4851 million wmt, down 30.6% YoY, with cumulative imports down 12.33% YoY. Among them, laterite nickel ore imports were 3.4394 million wmt, down 31.17% YoY; sulfide ore imports were 45,700 wmt, up 86.49% YoY.

From the perspective of major importing countries, nickel ore imports from the Philippines were 3.2734 million wmt, down 26.2% YoY and 24.7% MoM, with cumulative imports down 8.7% YoY. Additionally, New Caledonia did not export any nickel ore to China in July, while Guatemala's imports were 57,200 wmt, up 264.33% MoM. Australia resumed imports after three months, with 12,400 wmt in July.

From the July nickel ore import data, despite a significant reduction in the Philippines' nickel ore exports to China, the Philippines remained China's main source of nickel ore imports. Low-grade nickel ore still accounted for a high proportion of imports from the Philippines, about 78% of the total exports. However, medium-grade nickel ore imports saw a significant decline, falling by nearly 1 million wmt. The main reasons for this result, besides the frequent rain and low-pressure weather in the Philippines in July, which to some extent caused a decline in nickel ore exports, were mainly due to the increased supply of Philippine nickel ore to Indonesia.

In July, the Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia increased significantly, with a MoM growth of over 20% compared to June. As of August, the weather-related constraints on the supply of laterite nickel ore from the Philippines have significantly weakened, and the efficiency of laterite nickel ore shipments remains high. It is expected that the export volume of laterite nickel ore from the Philippines in August will still have some room for growth compared to July. However, given the continued upward trend in the price of laterite nickel ore flowing to Indonesia in August and the persistent price spread with domestic prices, the likelihood of a reduction in the proportion of laterite nickel ore flowing to Indonesia is relatively small, despite the ongoing demand for nickel ore replenishment in the domestic downstream market.