In terms of imports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in June 2024 were 138,100 mt, down about 25.21% MoM, and up about 1.35% YoY. The total amount of stainless steel imported from Indonesia in June was about 108,000 mt (excluding stainless steel scrap imports), up about 18.46% YoY, and down about 27% MoM. By form, the import volume of plates and coils was 83,100 mt, down about 25.95% MoM, while the import volume of semi-manufactured products such as billets decreased by about 12,000 mt, down 28.04% MoM. This was mainly due to the shutdown of Indonesia's Yongwang for maintenance in June, leading to a sharp drop in Indonesia's CRC imports. In July, with the rising premium of nickel ore, the profit of Indonesian stainless steel shrank, and the domestic anti-dumping policy continued as usual. It is expected that the stainless steel import volume in July will remain at a low level.
In terms of exports: According to SMM statistics, China's total stainless steel exports in May 2024 were 557,200 mt, up 0.5% MoM, and up 49.36% YoY. The total export volume of stainless steel in July remained at a high level, reaching a two-year high. The cumulative export volume in H1 2024 increased by 25.98% YoY. By form, the export volume of plates and coils decreased by about 14,000 mt, down 4.21% MoM, while narrow strips, pipes, and products showed significant growth: narrow strips increased by 2,049.58 mt, up 6.86% MoM; pipes increased by 5,991.44 mt, up 9.67% MoM; and products increased by 7,615.64 mt, up 7.87% MoM. By country, the concentration of exports continued to decline, with Turkey seeing the largest drop, decreasing by about 24,900 mt MoM, with its share falling from 10.96% to 5.64%. Meanwhile, import demand from the US and the Eurozone showed significant growth, with the US share rising from 4.9% to 6.13%, and the Eurozone from 4.41% to 6.96% (mainly driven by Italy, with exports increasing by about 10,100 mt). With the firm prices of nickel ore and NPI, the domestic cost advantages of stainless steel further expanded. The current anti-dumping policies and tariffs are more focused on low-priced, low-processed products such as coils and billets. Future export growth will be reflected in stainless steel products and processing re-exports to Southeast Asia. In July, as overseas demand enters the traditional off-season, stainless steel exports are expected to decline to some extent.
