Domestic aluminum wire exports have declined for two consecutive months MoM. Will overseas demand for aluminum wire show a trend of moving downwards after a higher opening this year? [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, in June 2024, aluminum wire and cable exports were 12,800 mt, marking a decline for two consecutive months, down 23% MoM and 31% YoY. The total export value of aluminum wire and cable in June was $36.45 million, down 23% MoM and 33% YoY. Among these, the export volume of steel-core aluminum stranded wire and similar products was only 6,983 mt, a decrease of 3,999 mt from the previous month; while the export volume of aluminum stranded wire and similar products reached 5,907 mt, remaining flat compared to the previous month. From January to June 2024, the total export volume of aluminum wire and cable was 101,000 mt, compared to 95,000 mt in the same period of 2023, up 6% YoY. (The above data is based on codes 76141000 and 76149000).

Export registration: In June, the number of exporting provinces remained at 22. The top three provinces in terms of export volume were Jiangsu, Henan, and Hebei, which correspond to the three major markets for aluminium rod trading. The total export volume from these three provinces reached 9,181 mt, accounting for 71.8% of the total exports, with a concentration decrease of 3.4%. The overall export trend in June was mainly downward, but Henan and Hebei both achieved a MoM increase of 28%. Chongqing's export volume decreased by nearly 3,600 mt, down 78.6% MoM.

Exporting countries: In June, the number of exporting countries reached 83, a decrease of 4 compared to May. Analyzing the top 15 countries by export volume, Ghana and Malaysia remained the top three aluminum wire and cable exporters in June, with export volumes of 1,938 mt and 1,196 mt, respectively. Finland saw a MoM increase of 67%, ranking second in June's export volume. By product type, steel-core aluminum stranded wire accounted for 13.4% of exports to Ghana, while non-insulated aluminum stranded wire accounted for 86.5%; for Finland, steel-core aluminum stranded wire accounted for 15.5%, and non-insulated aluminum stranded wire accounted for 84.4%; for Malaysia, steel-core aluminum stranded wire accounted for 81.6%, and non-insulated aluminum stranded wire accounted for 18.3%. Overall, Ghana and Finland primarily exported non-insulated aluminum stranded wire products, while Malaysia continued to use steel-core aluminum stranded wire mainly for power grid construction.

SMM Brief Comment: In June this year, China's aluminum wire exports declined for the second consecutive month MoM, achieving only a 6% YoY growth compared to the same period last year. Overall, the export trend showed a move downwards after a higher opening, falling short of the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the year. In terms of the types of exported aluminum wires, driven by the demand from overseas photovoltaic projects, the export performance of domestic non-insulated aluminum stranded wires remained relatively stable, while the export volume of steel-core aluminum stranded wires significantly declined. Meanwhile, reviewing the domestic situation in June, although the operating rate of aluminum wire producers rebounded, export performance was poor, mainly due to issues in the export of steel-core aluminum stranded wires. This phenomenon was primarily because producers prioritized fulfilling State Grid orders, whose profits had improved, potentially impacting overseas exports. Regarding the future trend of aluminum wire export volumes, based on historical data, July is not typically a low season for aluminum wire exports. Considering the current order trends and domestic raw material price movements, it is expected that aluminum wire exports in July may have some room for a rebound.