The macro impact and fundamentals intertwine, and the downward trend of nickel prices remains unchanged.

This week, SHFE nickel continued its downward trend, with prices down approximately 3.58% MoM. As of Friday's close, SHFE nickel prices stood at 130,170 yuan/mt. The nickel price trend this week was mainly affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the decline widening.

Macro side, the global focus this week was on the assassination attempt on Trump. This event had a direct impact on the upcoming US election. After being shot, Trump might gain some sympathy and support from voters, boosting his election prospects. According to previous reports, Trump announced during his campaign that if re-elected in the November election, he would significantly increase tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially imposing tariffs exceeding 60%, and plans to gradually reduce imports from China to zero deficit within four years. This would undoubtedly be a huge challenge for China's manufacturing industry. In the context of economic turmoil, safe-haven funds might steer clear of the non-ferrous metals market closely related to manufacturing.

Fundamentals side, the Philippines was affected by weather factors, causing current shipments to be slow. Meanwhile, Indonesia announced on Thursday that nickel and tin would be integrated with the local SIMBARA system. This system aims to provide comprehensive transparency in the nickel supply chain by tracking nickel ore sales in real-time, including mining locations, processing, transportation, and export information, helping ensure producers comply with global standards and reduce illegal mining, child labor, and environmental damage. The data integration of the system will also improve government oversight efficiency. However, the specific impact on nickel ore supply still awaits further clarification from Indonesian authorities.

In the domestic spot market, nickel prices saw a significant drop this week, leading to a rebound in downstream purchasing sentiment, with social inventories decreasing again and market transactions heating up. However, it should be noted that this was mainly due to restocking needs under the previous high nickel price background, not a genuine recovery in end-user demand. Therefore, as nickel prices enter a downward channel, end-user demand has not shown a significant increase, and subsequent spot market transactions may change.

In summary, macro sentiment is currently exerting a suppressive effect on nickel prices. Although fundamentals are disturbed by mining issues, the specific impact has yet to be seen, and downstream demand has significantly shrunk. With the development of the Trump incident and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, nickel prices may face further volatility.