[SMM Tin Midday Review: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Support vs. Inventory Buildup Pressure - Tin Prices Hover at Highs] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (2509) closed at 265,390 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.43% from the previous day's settlement price, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 264,980-267,140 yuan/mt. The macro front dominated short-term sentiment, as the US July non-farm payrolls data came in unexpectedly weak (with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 110,000). The combined data for the previous two months was revised downward by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market's expectation for a US Fed interest rate cut in September surged to 89%, causing the US dollar index to drop sharply and pushing up dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals in general. On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration's move to raise tariffs on multiple countries to 35% triggered trade risk-aversion sentiment, with some funds flowing into industrial metals. However, tin prices were constrained by the supply-demand imbalance in the industry, with gains weaker than those of safe-haven assets like gold.

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,626/mt, initially touched a high of $9,665/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $9,580.5/mt during the session, and ended rangebound at $9,607/mt by the close, down 1.26%.

SHFE tin prices opened slightly higher in the night session, and may continue the fluctuating trend. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) The Consumer Goods Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a meeting to promote the implementation of new standards for e-bikes and the supply of new car models, comprehensively scheduling the R&D and mass production launch of new standard vehicles by producers, and coordinating to resolve difficulties and problems encountered during the process. The meeting emphasized that e-bike producers should deeply recognize the importance and urgency of implementing the new standards, implement them without compromise, accelerate the launch and supply of new standard vehicles to meet market demand. (2) Tariffs: ① The US Trade Representative stated that the new round of tariffs is "basically set" and will not be adjusted in the current negotiations. ② The Canadian Trade Minister stated that it is expected that Prime Minister Trudeau and Trump will hold talks in the coming days. Reaching an agreement to reduce some tariffs is a "choice." ③ Switzerland is willing to make concessions in its trade proposals with the US to reduce the 39% tariff.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Indonesia's RKAB System to Undergo Reforms, Tin Prices Expected to Maintain Fluctuating Trend] Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets generally exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, influenced by multiple factors. On the international macro front, the US and Japan reached an automobile tariff agreement, setting the tariff on imported Japanese cars at 15%. However, this news did not have a significant impact on tin prices. Domestically, the supply of tin ore in the market tightened, with reduced supply from major producing areas like Yunnan. Some smelters maintained production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production. On the demand side, after the installation rush in the PV industry ended, orders declined. The electronics industry entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, who only maintained necessary orders. Demand in other sectors such as tinplate and chemicals remained stable, without any unexpected growth. The spot market saw sluggish transactions, with most traders only achieving single-digit transaction volumes. On the supply side, Indonesia's refined tin exports are gradually returning to normal levels, with exports reaching around 4,400 mt in June. H1 refined tin exports increased by 73.6% compared to the same period last year. Bahlil Lahadalia, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia, announced to the media that starting from 2026, the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) in the mineral and coal mining sector will be implemented on an annual basis, adjusted from the current three-year cycle to a one-year cycle. Mining companies are required to submit their new RKAB production plans for 2026 starting from October 2025. It is expected that SHFE tin prices will continue to maintain a fluctuating trend in the future, and investors need to closely monitor changes in international macro policies. ...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Mine Shortage and Off-Season Clash with Macro Headwinds, SHFE Tin Midday Session Under Pressure] As of the noon close on August 1, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 264,940 yuan/mt, down 0.46% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low reached 262,910 yuan/mt, continuing the doldrums from the night session. The LME tin 3-month contract also moved lower, closing at $32,800/mt, hitting a new low in nearly a month.

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,626/mt overnight, initially climbed to a high of $9,665/mt, then fluctuated downward to hit a low of $9,580.5/mt during the session, and maintained rangebound fluctuations before finally closing at $9,607/mt, down 1.26%, with trading volume reaching 47,000 lots and open interest at 271,000 lots.

SHFE tin prices dropped back slightly during the night session, while trading in the spot market recovered somewhat. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) US President Trump signed an executive order determining the "reciprocal tariff" rates for multiple countries and regions, with specific rates ranging from 10% to 41%. According to the order, Taiwan will be subject to a 20% "reciprocal tariff". The order also states that countries not listed will be subject to a unified 10% tariff rate. Additionally, if any country or region evades tariffs by transshipping through a third party, their goods will be subject to a 40% transshipment tax. (2) Tariffs: ① The White House: Trump will sign an executive order on July 31 to impose higher tariff rates on multiple countries that fail to reach a trade agreement by the August 1 deadline. ② US Treasury Secretary: The entire trade team is frustrated with India. ③ Malaysian Prime Minister: The tariff rates imposed by the US on Malaysian goods will be announced soon. ④ It is reported that India hopes to sign free trade agreements with several countries. ⑤ Trump stated that the tariff agreement between the US and Mexico will be extended by 90 days, meaning Mexico will continue to pay a 25% fentanyl tariff, a 25% automobile tariff, and 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: US Fed's Hawkish Remarks Weigh on Non-Ferrous Metals, Tin Prices Continue to Stay in the Doldrums] On July 31, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract fluctuated downward. At the close of trading at 15:00, it settled at 265,290 yuan/mt, down 2,450 yuan (a decline of 0.92%) from the previous trading day. The futures market fluctuated between 264,670 and 267,950 yuan/mt, with the settlement price fixed at 266,160 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 61,840 lots, while open interest decreased by 765 lots to 27,818 lots, indicating that some bulls exited the market to hedge risks. LME tin's decline widened to 1.68%, closing at $32,850/mt, with an intraday high of $33,450/mt.

With the deepening implementation of the "dual carbon" policy and the ongoing adjustment of the global tin resource supply landscape, price fluctuations of tin raw materials have intensified. An increasing number of tin processing enterprises are prioritizing the expansion of overseas raw material channels and optimizing supply chain layouts as their core strategic objectives.