SMM analysis on June overseas metallurgical-grade alumina output and July forecast

In June (30 days), the production of overseas metallurgical-grade alumina was approximately 4.68 million mt, up 0.7% YoY. The average capacity utilization rate of global alumina refineries was 80.1%, down 0.3% MoM and 1.1% YoY. H1 production totalled about 28.7 million mt, up 1.8% YoY.

By region:

Australia: The production in June was 1.43 million mt, down 8.3% YoY. The decline mainly came from Alcoa's Kwinana refinery and Rio Tinto's Yarwun refinery. Alcoa announced at the beginning of 2024 that the Kwinana alumina refinery would be completely shut down by the end of Q2. SMM estimates that the production of this refinery in June decreased by about 85% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate of about 8%. Additionally, the explosion of the Queensland natural gas pipeline in March 2024 affected the operations of Rio Tinto's Gladstone business, with the capacity utilization rate of the Yarwun alumina refinery dropping to about 73%.

North America: The production in June was 157,000 mt, down 1.6% YoY, with the average capacity utilization rate at 70.4%.

South America: The production increased by 9.6% YoY to 925,000 mt, with the growth from the Alumar alumina refinery in Brazil. The refinery was shut down for maintenance in 2023 Q2 and resumed normal production in Q3. Its production in June was about 286,000 mt, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90%.

Africa: The production in June was 33,000 mt, down 0.3% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate at 61.5%.

India: The production in June was 655,000 mt, up 6.9% YoY. The increase mainly came from Vedanta's alumina refinery in Lanjigarh. Vedanta announced at the beginning of April 2024 that the refinery's capacity would increase from 2 million mt to 3.5 million mt, with plans to expand to 5 million mt in the future. SMM estimates that the production of this refinery in June increased by 56,500 mt YoY, and it is expected to grow further in the future.

Indonesia: Since the ban on bauxite exports in June 2023, Indonesian alumina capacity has grown rapidly. The production in June was about 312,000 mt, up 18.4% YoY, mainly due to the capacity expansion of Nanshan Aluminum's alumina refinery on Bintan Island. The SMM survey showed that the refinery was put into operation with a capacity of 1 million mt in 2022 and added a capacity of another 1 million mt in 2023, with a current total operational capacity of 2 million mt. The current production is close to the nameplate capacity, with June production up 30% YoY.

Russia: The production in June was 248,000 mt, down 0.3% YoY, with the average capacity utilization rate at about 88.7%.

Europe (excluding Russia): The production in June was 286,000 mt, up 0.5% YoY, with the average capacity utilization rate at about 53.7%.

Other Asian regions (excluding India, Indonesia, and China): The production in June was 635,000 mt, down 1.7% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.4%.

July forecast: According to SMM, the total production of overseas metallurgical-grade alumina in July is expected to be 4.88 million mt, down 0.6% YoY. The average capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 80.1%, flat MoM but down 2.9% YoY.