[SMM Analysis] Production Capacity Increases in May, Graphitization Prices Slightly Decrease

Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices drifted lower compared with the previous trading day. The lithium carbonate 2701 contract opened lower at 157,000 yuan/mt today, then fluctuated downward after the open. In the morning session, it traded weakly around the 156,000-157,000 yuan range, with an intraday high of 157,800 yuan/mt. Near midday, it quickly dropped to 153,200 yuan/mt, hitting a new intraday low. Around midday, prices seesawed repeatedly in the 154,000-156,000 yuan range. In the afternoon, bulls briefly pushed prices up but failed to break above the average price line. Prices weakened again in late trading, eventually closing down 3.2% at 154,800 yuan/mt, with open interest falling by 9,123 lots. In the spot market, downstream buyers purchased on dips as needed. At 155,000 yuan/mt and below, downstream spot order purchase willingness continued to recover. On the supply side, as prices drifted lower, willingness to sell spot orders remained weak, with some lithium chemical plants holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively active.

Key takeaway upfront: A Q4 spike is unlikely, but we do expect continued moderate growth. Monthly output is likely to settle in the 9–10 tonne range – a modest step-up from Q3, not an explosive leap.