Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,775.5/mt, initially plunged straight to a low of $9,714/mt, then fluctuated considerably upward, touching a high of $9,780/mt near the close, and finally settled at $9,777/mt with a 0% change.

Daly: A significant interest rate cut next month does not seem appropriate. SHFE tin prices drop back slightly [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) According to informed sources, the Trump administration is negotiating with Intel (INTC.O) to allow the US government to take a stake in the struggling chipmaker, helping the company expand its domestic manufacturing. The deal would help support Intel's plans for a factory hub in Ohio. Intel had promised to turn the factory into the world's largest chip manufacturing plant, although this promise has been repeatedly delayed. The informed sources said that these plans stemmed from a meeting this week between Trump and Intel's CEO. The idea is for the US government to pay for the stake, with details being finalized. The plan remains uncertain, and the potential size of the stake is unclear. Affected by the news, Intel's stock price rose by 8.9% at one point in the after-hours trading, reaching $24.2. As of Wednesday's close, the stock had risen by 11% year-to-date.

Trump said there were only three to four candidates left for the position of Fed Chairman. SHFE tin prices dropped back slightly [SMM Tin Morning Brief]. Macro: (1) According to a report by CNBC, the US White House confirmed on the 12th that two US chip manufacturers, Nvidia and AMD, had agreed to a special arrangement to hand over 15% of their chip sales revenue in China to the US government in exchange for export licenses for related products. The White House indicated that the agreement might be expanded to include more companies in the future. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated at a press conference that currently, such agreements only involved these two companies, "but it may be expanded to other companies in the future." She also mentioned that the US Department of Commerce was still studying the relevant legal basis and specific operational methods, with further details to be provided by the Department of Commerce.

Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,768.5/mt, touched a low of $9,747.5/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward throughout the day, nearing a high of $9,865/mt before closing at $9,840/mt, up 1.17%.

Tin prices stabilize at the 270,000 mark, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has invested heavily in computing power construction, achieving remarkable development results. Data shows that by 2025, China's general computing power capacity is expected to grow by 20%, while intelligent computing power capacity is projected to increase by 43%, ranking second globally, just behind the US. Over the past five years, the total computing power capacity has grown at an annual rate of approximately 30%. (2) It was reported that US President Trump stated on Monday that he might allow Nvidia to sell a "special version" of its Blackwell AI chip in China, which is likely to be more powerful than the previously approved H20 chip for sale in China. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that specific questions should be directed to the competent Chinese authorities. China has repeatedly stated its principled position on US chip exports to China and hopes that the US will take concrete actions to maintain the stability and smoothness of the global industrial and supply chains.

The global semiconductor industry is currently in a phase of cyclical adjustment. The price of SHFE tin maintains a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) According to the latest statistics from CINNO Research, in the first half of 2025 (H1), the total investment in China's semiconductor industry (including Taiwan) was 455 billion yuan, representing a 9.8% YoY decline. This change reflects that the global semiconductor industry is currently in a phase of cyclical adjustment. Moreover, compared to the 41.6% YoY decline last year, there has been a notable improvement and convergence. (2) In response to the market rumor that "Nvidia and AMD have agreed to hand over 15% of their AI chip sales revenue from the Chinese market to the US government," Nvidia responded that it adheres to the rules set by the US government for participating in the global market. The demand for accelerated computing is global, and Nvidia will continue to serve as many customers as possible within the scope of the rules. As of now, AMD has not yet responded.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Trump Plans to Impose 100% Tariffs on Semiconductor Goods, Tin Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend] On the international macro front, Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on semiconductor goods, but exempts enterprises that build factories in the US. This policy has sparked widespread market concern and uncertainty. The EU has stated that even if the US imposes new tariffs on semiconductors, the tariff ceiling for chips exported from the EU to the US will remain at 15%. Additionally, New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest level in nearly five years in Q2, which may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to restart interest rate cuts. Domestically, the overall supply and demand in the tin ore market is tight. In terms of supply, the supply of tin ore in major producing areas such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters may maintain production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production in August. Demand side, after the installation rush in the PV industry ended, orders declined. The electronics industry has entered the off-season, and end-users have strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders only meeting just-in-time procurement needs. Demand in other sectors such as tinplate and chemicals remains stable. Transactions in the spot market are sluggish, with downstream enterprises mostly restocking at lower prices in the early stage and currently only making just-in-time procurement. Overall, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at highs this week. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in international policies and domestic market supply and demand, and operate cautiously...

The US Department of Commerce began issuing licenses for Nvidia's H20 chips. SHFE tin prices maintained a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) After Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump at the White House, the US Department of Commerce began issuing licenses for Nvidia's H20 chips. In the weeks prior, the US Department of Commerce had delayed issuing this license to Nvidia. (2) In July this year, the US Congress passed the so-called "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly promoted by President Trump. The bill stipulates that the US government will no longer provide tax credits for EVs starting from September 30 this year. According to a report by CNBC on the 9th, US consumers are rushing to buy EVs to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit before the deadline. Data shows that EV sales accounted for 9.1% of total passenger vehicle sales in July, a record high. Additionally, used EV sales in the US in July also approached 36,700 units, setting a new monthly record. The company expects that Q3 may see a record in EV sales. However, in Q4 this year, US EV sales may "plummet.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Continues to Fluctuate at Highs, with Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut Continuing to Fester as Core Support] On the afternoon of August 8, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 268,020 yuan/mt, up approximately 490 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, representing a 0.18% increase. Prices fluctuated at highs during the day, with the trading range narrowing to 267,260-268,790 yuan/mt. Market sentiment was cautious, with downstream order volumes remaining low. Meanwhile, the LME tin contract pulled back slightly to around $33,720 in the early Asian session, reflecting overseas bullish sentiment being disrupted by both macro policies and inventory divergence.