Pre-holiday Stockpiling Emerges, Early Morning Spot Copper Transactions Perform Well

Published: Jun 6, 2024 13:31
Today, spot #1 copper cathode against the current month 2406 contract was quoted at a discount of 60-40 yuan/mt, with an average price at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode against the current month 2406 contract was quoted at a discount of 60-40 yuan/mt, with an average price at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Standard-quality copper transaction prices ranged from 80,890 to 81,300 yuan/mt, while high-quality copper transaction prices ranged from 80,900 to 81,310 yuan/mt. The SHFE 2406 copper contract surged in the early session and fluctuated around 81,000 yuan/mt, falling t o 80,920 yuan/mt during the session. The contango between the SHFE 2406 and 2407 contracts fluctuated between 290-250 yuan/mt.

Due to pre-Dragon Boat Festival stockpiling, intraday transactions were frequent, and outflows from warehouses increased. In the early morning session, mainstream sellers quoted standard-quality copper at a discount of 50-40 yuan/mt. High-quality copper such as CCC-P and JNMC were quoted at a discount of 30-20 yuan/mt for next month's invoices. During the main trading period, mainstream standard-quality copper for next month's invoices was quoted at a discount of 60-40 yuan/mt with some transactions, while high-quality copper such as CCC-P and JNMC were quoted at a discount of 50-40 yuan/mt with some transactions. Hydro copper such as MV was quoted at a discount of 170-150 yuan/mt. Some low-price sources were quickly snapped up. By 11:00 AM, the market atmosphere gradually cooled down.

Today, copper prices slightly rebounded, but spot consumption did not show weakness due to pre-Dragon Boat Festival stockpiling demand. According to the SMM survey, smelters' finished product inventories were reduced earlier, but with no significant change in the recent contango structure, social inventories remained high. It is expected that spot premiums will remain stable tomorrow.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 55,500 mt, down 11,000 mt WoW from Monday this week; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 23,200 mt, up 3,200 mt WoW, with inventory trends in the two east China regions clearly diverging. The rapid destocking in Shanghai was driven on one hand by the pullback in copper prices and spot premiums in the previous trading session, which released some dip-buying from downstream buyers and led to solid spot warehouse withdrawals; on the other hand, arrivals remained relatively limited recently, further pushing Shanghai inventory lower. Jiangsu, by contrast, saw inventory buildup due to concentrated arrivals from some smelters. On the demand side, buying picked up after yesterday's copper price pullback, but intraday consumption enthusiasm has already cooled, with downstream buyers returning to just-in-time procurement and remaining limited in their acceptance of current premiums. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between the front and next month contracts remains at a relatively high level, and suppliers' rollover and shipment pace will remain a key variable affecting spot premiums. Overall, low inventory and limited arrivals in Shanghai provide some support to spot prices, but insufficient demand sustainability still caps premium upside. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain rangebound tomorrow, with the center possibly edging slightly lower, though room for a further sharp decline is relatively limited. Going forward, the key focus will be on changes in the backwardation structure between the front and next month contracts.
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