SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (May 6)

Last Tuesday, the most-traded SHFE 2406 aluminum contract opened at 20,640 yuan/mt, with its lowest and highest at 20,680 yuan/mt and 20,945 yuan/mt before closing at 20,575 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt or 0.19%. LME aluminum opened at $2,530.5/mt in the previous trading day, with its high and low at $2,572/mt and $2,526/mt respectively before closing at $2,551/mt, up $12.5/mt or 0.49%.

Summary: The domestic macro atmosphere was bullish. The weakness of the US PMI in April and the latest non-farm data that fell short of expectations revived market expectations for interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import window closed, and domestic aluminum supply maintained a growth trend. The domestic bauxite supply was tight, and ore price was relatively solid. The cost support of alumina and aluminum was relatively large. On the demand, the downstream operating rate remained stable. Domestic demand remained resilient as the direction of expanding domestic demand, implementing large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in action plans remained unchanged. In the short term, supply-demand imbalance is not very prominent. Low inventory and bullish demand can support aluminum price. It is expected that aluminum prices may go up.