[SMM Tin Midday Review: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut in September Continue to Build Up, SHFE Tin Continues to Fluctuate at Highs] On the morning of September 2, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract opened lower at 273,500 yuan/mt and hovered at highs during the session. By midday, it closed at 274,360 yuan/mt, rising slightly from the previous trading day's settlement price, with intraday volatility reflecting the market's repeated tug-of-war between macro optimism and weak fundamentals. Overnight, LME tin closed at $35,060/mt, up 0.31%, but during today's Asian trading hours, LME e-tin came under pressure and pulled back, with the latest price at $34,895/mt, down 0.47%, indicating cautious trading in overseas markets.

Overnight, LME copper opened and touched a high of $9,916.5/mt before fluctuating downward to close at the day's low of $9,875/mt, down 0.31%, with trading volume at 10,000 lots and open interest at 269,000 lots.

Overall wafer toll processing capacity utilization rate and shipments may strengthen in Q3. SHFE tin prices edged up [SMM Tin Morning Brief] Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract rose slightly to 275,000 yuan/mt during the night session, then maintained a fluctuating trend around 274,000 yuan/mt before closing at 274,300 yuan/mt, up 0.2% from the previous trading day.

[SMM Tin Futures Review: Weak Supply and Demand Persists, Supply Disruptions Remain Core Contradiction in Tin Market] On September 1, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract remained in the doldrums, with futures under sustained pressure in the afternoon session. It ultimately closed at 273,240 yuan/mt, down 2,570 yuan (0.93%) from the previous trading day. The intraday trading range was 271,540-279,010 yuan/mt, with the settlement price at 273,770 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 146,445 lots, while open interest declined by 10,315 lots to 35,983 lots, indicating heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors. Meanwhile, LME tin prices also retreated, with the three-month LME tin contract settling at $34,865/mt, down $85 (0.24%). The session's high and low stood at $35,150 and $34,760 respectively, reflecting cautious trading in overseas markets.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Domestic September-October Peak Season Demand Yet to Materialize, SHFE Tin May Extend Fluctuating Trend] At midday on August 28, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract settled at 272,540 yuan/mt, up 1,210 yuan (0.45%) from the previous settlement. Prices fluctuated rangebound at elevated levels during the session, moving between 270,800-272,860 yuan/mt, with cautious market sentiment and mildly expanding trading volume. Meanwhile, LME three-month tin maintained strength at $34,560/mt, gaining $50 (0.14%) on the day, while showing initial signs of inventory buildup though absolute levels remained at yearly lows.

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,899/mt on Friday night, initially touched a low of $9,881/mt, then entered sideways movement with prices gradually moving upward, nearing a high of $9,924.5/mt before closing at $9,906/mt, up 0.68%.

SHFE tin prices fell back from highs of 278,500 yuan, likely to remain weak with sideways consolidation [SMM Tin Morning Brief]. Macro: (1) The latest China Automobile Dealers Inventory Alert Index (VIA) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the August 2025 inventory alert index stood at 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points YoY but down 0.2 percentage points MoM. With the index remaining above the 50 mark, industry prosperity in the auto distribution sector weakened. (2) Regarding the US Department of Commerce's removal of Intel Semiconductor (Dalian) Co., Ltd., Samsung China Semiconductor Co., Ltd., and SK Hynix Semiconductor (China) Co., Ltd. from the "Validated End-User" authorization list on August 29, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce stated on the 30th that the US move, driven by self-interest and weaponizing export controls, would significantly disrupt the stability of global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain. China opposes this action and urges the US to immediately correct its wrong practices to safeguard the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains. China will take necessary measures to resolutely protect the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US President Trump Threatens to Impose Hefty Tariffs on Countries Implementing Digital Taxes, Tin Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend] Last week on the macro front, US President Trump threatened to impose hefty tariffs on countries implementing digital taxes and imposed export restrictions on highly protected US technologies and chips. Additionally, regarding US Fed policy, Cook officially sued Trump over the dismissal controversy, with Powell also named as a defendant, while Trump's Fed governor nominee Milan is expected to be confirmed before the September Fed decision. These factors caused market sentiment fluctuations and unstable US dollar movements. Domestically, the tin ore market showed relatively tight supply and demand conditions.

On tin ore imports, China's cumulative imports from January to July totaled 69,119 mt in physical content, marking a 34.8% YoY decline from 106,000 mt in the same period last year. Shipments from Myanmar plummeted to just 14,157 mt, down 77.1% YoY. As a key tin ore supplier to China, Myanmar's sharp production drop significantly impacted China's supply structure. In contrast, African supply surged 44.4% YoY to 40,650 mt (28,160 mt last year), becoming a major incremental source for China's imports. In refined tin trade, China's July imports rose 21% MoM and 158% YoY to 2,167 mt, while exports fell 15% MoM and 4% YoY to 1,673 mt. Indonesia, the world's top refined tin exporter, shipped 3,790 mt in July 2025, up 11.5% YoY but down 13.9% MoM. Exports were handled by 18 smelters, with a clear tiered distribution: 4 smelters shipped 300-500 mt, 5 shipped 200-300 mt, and 9 shipped below 200 mt. By destination, exports to China dropped 51% MoM to 540.7 mt, while shipments to Singapore increased.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Supply-Demand Deadlock Persists, SHFE Tin Holds Steady at Highs] At midday on August 28, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract settled at 272,540 yuan/mt, up 1,210 yuan (0.45%) from the previous session's settlement. Prices fluctuated rangebound at elevated levels during the session, moving between 270,800-272,860 yuan/mt, with cautious market sentiment and mild expansion in trading volume. Meanwhile, the LME three-month tin contract extended its strength to $34,560/mt, gaining $50 (0.14%) on the day, while showing initial signs of inventory buildup though absolute levels remained at yearly lows.