Refined Nickel Production Review & Forecast

Chinese refined nickel output in February totalled 24,600 mt

Chinese refined nickel output in February totalled 24,600 mt (-3% MoM as expected, +42.2% YoY). Overall operating rates remained high in February, falling a paltry 2% MoM. It is estimated that Chinese refined nickel output will be 25,000 mt in March 2024. According to SMM research, sustained nickel price rise will keep refined nickel plants’ production enthusiasm. Moreover, capacity at some refined nickel plants is still in ramp-up However, surging raw material prices made it tough for some refined nickel plants to source feedstock, slightly cutting refined nickel output. Refined nickel output in March 2024 may hike by 1.6% MoM.

In December 2023, China imported 8,701 mt of refined nickel and 471 mt of nickel powder.

According to the data released by the Customs Statistics Platform, China imported 8,701 mt of refined nickel (unwrought non-alloyed nickel containing total nickel and cobalt ≥99.99%, cobalt ≤0.005%, other unwrought nonalloyed nickel and unwrought nickel alloys) in December 2023. The customs clearance volume was down 10.31% MoM and 20.72% YoY. Of the total, 5,785 mt or 65.5% was other unwrought nickel alloys, down 63.27% YoY. In addition, the import volume of non-alloy nickel powder and flake powder (HS code: 75040010) was 471 mt, up 117.94% MoM but down 31.78% YoY. As for nickel briquette, the import volume in December 2023 was 322.51 mt, down 67% MoM. In terms of the origin of imported nickel, in December 2023, the countries with the largest import volume were Russia (2,981 mt), Canada (1,648 mt), and Norway (1,616 mt).

In December, the customs clearance volume was 2,305 mt, down 10.31% MoM. Although there was a slight increase in the import volume of refined nickel during December, the clearance volume continued to decline. This indicates that despite the increase in import volume, most of the imported refined nickel remained in bonded zones or was directly exported to overseas, rather than flowing directly into the domestic spot market. The demand for overseas nickel in the domestic market continued to decrease. Specifically, according to SMM research, the spot market for pure nickel showed some signs of recovery in December 2023. In the second half of December, some downstream industries started to stock up ahead of the holidays. The main reason for this was that nickel prices began to decline again, reaching around 125,000 yuan/mt at one point. Overall, due to weak domestic demand and the increasing substitution of imported nickel by newly added electro-deposited nickel, it is expected that the clearance volume of pure nickel may continue to decline in January.

Please do not hesitate to contact Jean at jeantang@smm.cn or 86-19946295759 if you have any question or inquiry.