MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 28)

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] Supply side, costs increased further, losses at most coke producers widened, and willingness to push for a coke price hike strengthened, but a coke price hike is expected to be implemented, while coke production remained stable. Demand side, finished steel shipments improved somewhat, steel inventories began to decline, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, raising acceptance of higher coke prices. In summary, coke fundamentals have turned tighter, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term, with a coke price hike expected to be implemented.

[SMM Daily Hot-Rolled Coil Trading] On March 26, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil among sample enterprises in four SMM cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) was 14,130 mt, temporarily flat MoM. On a calendar YoY basis, it was down 1.74, and on a lunar YoY basis, it was up 29.40.

SMM's data was released with production fluctuating rangebound. HRC social inventory (large sample) stood at 5.5229 million mt, down 36,200 mt WoW, or down 0.65% WoW, and up 21.22% YoY on a lunar-calendar basis. Nationwide social inventory as a whole maintained a destocking trend, but by region, apart from continued inventory declines in South China and North China, inventories in other markets all increased. Meanwhile, traders maintained a moderate pace of purchase, and mill inventory turned from increase to decline. Total inventory stood at 6.7821 million mt, down 89,100 mt WoW. Looking ahead, the cost-side logic weakened due to falling crude oil prices and easing iron ore supply disruptions, and coil prices were expected to remain in the doldrums with fluctuations.