[SMM Rebar Daily Review] Restocking for the double festival slows, steel prices driven by costs

Futures consolidated today, with the most-traded rebar contract closing at 3,114 yuan/mt, up 0.19% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, prices in some regions rose by 10-30 yuan/mt, while overall trading remained weak.
From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, most blast furnace steel mills maintained previous production levels, while some producers resumed production of building material rolling lines as planned, driving a slight increase in supply. According to SMM maintenance data, the impact from maintenance on building materials this period was 1.1009 million mt, down 25,400 mt WoW. At EAF steel mills, per-tonne margins remained above the break-even line, and some producers resumed production as planned, with operating rates edging up. However, operations were still mainly during off-peak and flat electricity periods, limiting subsequent supply growth. On the demand side, market sentiment was cautious today, with restocking demand for the upcoming holidays leveling off. End-users mainly purchased on a need-to basis, and low-priced cargoes saw relatively better sales. Overall, supply-demand fundamentals for building materials currently offer limited upward momentum, and prices are likely to fluctuate in line with the cost side. If expectations for coke price cuts materialize, steel cost support will shift downward, and spot steel prices may come under pressure.