Nickle：The bullish sentiment is weak, and the price will not immediately rise.

**Nickel Morning Meeting Minutes on February 21st**

**SMM News on February 20th:** On February 20th, the main contract for Shanghai nickel opened at 126,850 yuan/ton and closed at 126,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 670 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. Trading within the day was stronger compared to the previous trading day, with a volume increase of 45,503 lots and a decrease in open interest of 3,811 lots. This combination indicates that the bears actively closed positions, but trading volume increased. If this phenomenon occurs at the bottom, the characteristic often seen on the market surface is a slight upward trend because the price has fallen to the bottom, the bearish sentiment is relatively good, and the bullish sentiment is weak, and the price will not immediately rise.

On the macro side, affected by the slower-than-expected decline in the US core CPI, market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have slowed down. The prediction that there will be no interest rate cut in March has expanded to 90%. From a fundamental perspective, today is the first day after the holiday, and some factories have not yet fully ended the holiday, so market trading remains relatively stable. Overall, it is expected that the future nickel price will oscillate weakly.

**Pure Nickel:** On February 20th, Jinchuan's premium was reported at 3,300-3,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Russian nickel premiums were quoted at -100 to 100 yuan/ton, with an average of -50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The market fluctuated during the day. Nickel prices rose slightly before the holiday, but regarding spot premiums, Jinchuan's premiums were relatively high due to tight spot supply in the Shanghai area before the holiday, resulting in few actual transactions. Therefore, after the holiday, premiums for Jinchuan nickel, as the leading brand, all experienced a downward adjustment. The price of nickel beans today was 123,500-123,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price difference between nickel beans and nickel sulfate was about -1425 yuan/ton. (The price of nickel sulfate is 1425 yuan/ton lower than that of nickel beans).

**Nickel Pig Iron:** On February 20th, the average price of SMM 8-12% high nickel pig iron was 932.5 yuan/nickel point (factory tax-inclusive), unchanged from the previous working day. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, some iron factories entered a shutdown phase in January. It is expected that China's high-nickel pig iron production will further decrease in February. In addition, according to SMM research, affected by the off-season of the stainless steel industry, the month-to-month increase in nickel pig iron inventories in mid-February was 1.45%. From the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival and the stainless steel entering the traditional off-season, the expected production of stainless steel in January and February both showed a decline. Overall, the supply and demand of nickel pig iron remain weak, but the number of mining companies that have obtained RKAB is less than 40, lower than market expectations, intensifying market concerns about raw material supply, and the market is starting to be bullish on nickel pig iron prices.

**Nickel Sulfate:** On February 20th, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate index price was 27,579 yuan/ton, an increase of 357 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate was 27,500-28,000 yuan/ton, with a low-price increase of 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day and a high-price increase of 200 yuan/ton. The average price increased by 350 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Affected by some salt factories that have not resumed production during the Spring Festival holiday, the current nickel sulfate market continues to be tight on the spot side. Combined with the current raw material end, the MHP coefficient price has risen, and salt factories have shown a strong reluctance to sell, leading to a stronger price trend for low-priced nickel sulfate. Although the downstream precursor demand has rebounded, it is still overall weak, hindering the acceptance of high-priced nickel sulfate, so high-priced nickel sulfate faces pressure to rise. The current market activity is relatively high.

**Stainless Steel:** According to SMM research, today's stainless steel market was trading in a narrow range, with spot prices slightly lower than the previous trading day. Today, the prices of 304 cold-rolled coils decreased slightly, affected by the pre-holiday downward trend and the current sluggish spot transactions. Downstream and terminal consumption has not yet recovered, so spot prices are unlikely to rise. In terms of raw materials, the price of molten steel in South China has increased by 300 yuan/ton before the holiday, and the market price of stainless steel scrap has risen, leading to a slight increase in the cost line. Early on February 20th, the price of 304 cold-rolled coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,800-14,100 yuan/ton, and 304 hot-rolled coils in Wuxi were reported at 13,300-13,400 yuan/ton. 316L cold-rolled coils in Wuxi were reported at 24,000-24,800 yuan/ton. 201J1 cold-rolled coils in Wuxi were reported at 9,000-9,100 yuan/ton. 430 cold-rolled coils in Wuxi were reported at 8,200-8,300 yuan/ton. At 10:30 am, the SS2405 contract price on the SHFE was 13,710 yuan/ton, and the spot premium for stainless steel in Wuxi was 260-560 yuan/ton. (Spot trim = gross edge + 170 yuan/ton).

For more information. please contact account manager: zhuoxuanli@smm.cn/ whatsapp: +33 603911348